#美国结束政府停摆 On 2025.11.14, the crypto world fell sharply, the US stock market also fell sharply, and today the Hong Kong A shares also fell sharply. The core reason for the decline in the US stock market is under the premise of macro uncertainty. Once there is a slight disturbance, the first reaction of institutions is to hedge and reduce position. It has risen too much, there is a demand for profit pullback, and the US stock market also needs to kill valuations.

The core reason for the fall in the crypto world is more complex. There are macro reasons, liquidity issues, problems with endogenous structure, and so on. However, if we focus on one point, the most critical factor is that there are no new buyers.

The recent rise in gold is due to the significant debt risk in the United States affecting the credit of the dollar, with the core being risk aversion, leading institutions and central banks to shift from underweight to overweight positions; the endpoint would be the dollar regaining strength and interest rate hikes, but currently, there are no signs of these conditions occurring. The logic behind Nvidia's rise is the wave of technological revolution in AI, with the endpoint of this rise being the burst of the AI bubble, as valuations are too high and performance cannot be delivered; there are concerns currently, but Nvidia's performance remains strong, and price corrections are likely to occur multiple times, though there seems to be insufficient evidence for a collapse.

BTC has risen from 1.6W to around 12.W in this round due to the enhancement of political status, increased global consensus, the easing of the regulatory environment, and the transition of institutions from no allocation to increased BTC allocation. The US has included BTC in its strategic reserves, and institutional buying has become saturated, waiting for the washout to end.

This wave of fall is not very similar to May, but exactly the same, exactly the same. Hold on, in the year 2025, there won't be many opportunities in the market.