#美停摆危机或将结束？ The US government has restarted after a 43-day shutdown, which should have been a celebration. Why is the market unusually calm, and why did the crypto market even "crash"?

The government’s restart is not a cure-all for the market. The key issue lies in the fact that the Treasury's TGA account is draining liquidity from the market in large amounts—like opening a faucet while there is a larger exit continuously siphoning water. The spending demands that have accumulated during the 43-day shutdown are now being accelerated back into the TGA, which in turn exacerbates the dollar tightening. The market sees through the facade, making it naturally difficult to buy into.

The government's reopening is not a "magic bullet" for the market; the real core contradiction lies in the U.S. Treasury's General Account (TGA). With the government reopening, the Treasury needs to significantly replenish the cash balance of the TGA — this means it will extract a massive amount of liquidity, in the trillion-dollar range, from the financial system in the short term.

This substantial tightening is far from being offset by the political move of the government opening the doors. When the market's "purse" expects to tighten, risk assets naturally bear the brunt. Therefore, the market's lack of response is not due to sluggishness, but rather an understanding of a deeper narrative: the tide of liquidity is receding.