#美国终止政府关闭 Recently saw a speech by Hamak, and it feels like the Fed is really being grilled right now. Inflation hasn’t calmed down here—data is not only high but also moving in the opposite direction, with service industry inflation particularly troublesome. What’s more, before the beginning of next year, the tariff policy will continue to push prices up, and this pressure is unimaginable.

What about the other side? The job market has clearly weakened. The unemployment rate is approaching its peak, and on the surface, it seems "stable," but there are some internal signs that are quite unsettling. The Fed originally had the hard indicator of "promoting full employment," but now this aspect is clearly struggling.

So the policy side is quite awkward: to curb inflation, tightening must be maintained, but the job market cannot withstand too much turmoil. Additionally, during the previous government shutdown, we could only rely on private sector data, which somewhat compromises the quality of information. Hamak also specifically emphasized the independence of the Fed – the meaning is very clear, do not think about using political means to influence monetary policy.

In summary, it is a contradictory combination of "high inflation + weakening employment". For the cryptocurrency market, this uncertainty means that every move the Fed makes next must be closely monitored, as liquidity expectations could change at any moment.