NY Fed Chair caught between a rock and a hard place: high inflation vs. household pressure, is a December rate cut on the table?

[Block Rhythm] Recently, there have been new developments from the New York Federal Reserve. Williams (the President of the New York Fed) made a rather contradictory statement: on one hand, data shows that many ordinary families are being overwhelmed by high prices, but on the other hand, economic data still looks quite resilient. This kind of “differentiation” may directly determine whether to cut interest rates in December.

He himself is also conflicted: inflation remains high with no clear signs of retreat, but economic resilience is still evident. The labor market is indeed cooling down, but there hasn’t been a crash-like decline. Earlier this year, everyone was worried about a recession, but now that term is hardly mentioned—U.S. economy is more resilient than many expected.

What’s more interesting is that Williams warned back in April that Trump’s tariff policies could push inflation to 4% and cut economic growth below 1%. Now, although that hasn’t fully materialized, this forecast has actually planted a trap for current decision-making: to cut or not to cut? Cutting risks a rebound in inflation, while not cutting could push ordinary families into a corner.

Anyway, the December meeting will likely involve a lot of careful deliberation on these issues.