Volatility rise, a big one is coming next week!

I just saw the rise in Bitcoin's volatility, and it's time for the market to split directions again, so I analyzed Bitcoin's market trend.

The distribution structure is confirmed technically. 😭

On the macro fundamentals:
1. The government is shut down and cannot open.
2. The Federal Reserve will only end its balance sheet reduction and conduct technical liquidity injections in December, and it may take until the first quarter of next year for liquidity to truly flow into the cryptocurrency market. 😭
3. 125 billion U.S. dollars in government bonds next week.
In addition to the 40 billion corporate bonds expected by the market, the demand for funds of 165 billion US dollars is concentrated in a trading week shortened by the holiday.
4. TGA balance surged from 300 billion to over 1 trillion within three months, which is equivalent to taking 700 billion cash directly from the market.
The effect is no less than several consecutive rate hikes. The overnight rate (SOFR) soared, and the repo market experienced significant fluctuations,
The cost of capital is getting higher, and borrowing money is becoming more difficult. 😭
5. The probability of interest rate cuts in December decreases. 😭

Fundamentally, there are currently all bearish signals, each indicating that market liquidity is increasingly scarce. Although government interventions may be beneficial for the market, I still think it's not enough. The repeated fluctuations of ETFs have already shown us that the market's attitude is to avoid risks. Risk assets are actually the most correlated with liquidity, and in a situation where market liquidity is being drained, BTC has sufficient reasons to continue to plummet.

However, the 100,000 level should hold for a few days, but there should be lower lows coming out. Based on the timeline, being able to hold 90,000 before the end of the year would be the best scenario. If 90,000 can be maintained, there is hope to touch new highs in the first quarter of next year. If it goes too low, it will need to consolidate at the bottom for a period of time. #比特币价格分析