Bitcoin Holds at $111K While Traders Hedge with Puts Before the Jobs Report

What's going on: BTC closed yesterday floating near $111 mil, recovering from the drop it took on Wednesday. But the mood in the options markets is different — traders from CME and Deribit are buying cheap puts like crazy to protect themselves before the American jobs report (NFP) that comes out on Friday.

The Fear Comes from Work

The expectation is that the US will create 110 thousand new jobs in August, up from 73 thousand in July. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.2%. Seems calm, right? Wrong. If the numbers come out hotter than expected, central bankers might hesitate on rate cuts — and that's when BTC takes a hit.

Mixed Data, Heavy Hedge

The signals coming from the labor market are so confusing:

• Job openings fell to 7.2 million (below expectations)
• ADP's report showed that private employers created only 54 thousand jobs in August (a heavy drop from the 104 thousand in July)

All of this suggests that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates by the end of 2025 — good for Bitcoin. But what if the NFP surprises to the upside? Then the Fed will become concerned about inflation again and delay the cuts. BTC suffers in the short term.

That's why traders are buying those “far out-of-the-money” options — cheap puts that only gain value if the price crashes. It's like insurance: it's expensive, but it protects your portfolio.

Where the Stop Can Go

Support: $110 mil and $108 mil Resistance: $112 mil and $115 mil

If the NFP comes out weak → BTC may test $115K. If it comes out strong → risk of a drop to $108K or less.