Prediction markets are no longer just about betting on wins and losses, Bernstein: they are becoming a new battleground for information trading.

On November 6, an interesting viewpoint came from Bernstein regarding 【区块律动】.

Their analyst team believes that the prediction market is undergoing a major transformation. How to say it? As regulations gradually loosen, institutional funds are starting to enter the market on a large scale, along with the wave of asset tokenization, and retail brokers getting closer to the crypto market—these factors combined mean that the prediction market is no longer just about “betting” on politics and sports events.

The team led by Gautam Chhugani emphasized one point in the report released on Thursday: the current prediction market is “evolving into a broader information market.” What does this mean? It means that the boundaries of this market are expanding rapidly—from the initial political elections and sports competitions, it has now extended to economic data, cultural events, corporate dynamics, and even various financial indicators can be traded.

In simple terms, the way prediction markets work is quite straightforward: users trade contracts that are of the “yes/no” type. If the event occurs, you get 1 dollar; if it does not, it becomes zero. And the real-time price of the contract? That is the collective judgment of the market on the probability of this event occurring.

Where is the imagination space of this model? The growth of global liquidity and the acceleration of mainstream adoption may be hidden in this logic.