The U.S. government shutdown has reached a record 37 days, and the prediction market indicates no short-term resolution.

On November 6, Eastern Time, a rather unglamorous record was set again—the U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 37th day. It's worth noting that the previous longest record was from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, which lasted only 35 days. This time, it clearly broke the record.

What's even more interesting is how the prediction market views this issue. The data on the Polymarket platform speaks volumes: the probability of betting that “the government shutdown won't be resolved until after November 16” has soared to 44%, basically saying that we shouldn't expect the government to open its doors anytime soon.

The specific timeline is as follows: Can it be done between November 4th and 7th? The probability is only 3%, almost impossible. Can it be finished between the 8th and 11th? There is a 22% chance, which is not very high. However, there is a 30% probability for the period from the 12th to the 15th, which is considered a relatively optimistic expectation.

From these numbers, the market generally believes that this political deadlock will continue to drag on, with little hope of a resolution in the short term.