At 9:15 PM on Wednesday, there is a data point worth keeping an eye on – the U.S. October ADP private sector employment report is about to be released.

Interestingly, due to the government shutdown, the official non-farm data has been absent for two consecutive months. Now this ADP report has almost become the only lifeline the market can grab onto. The market expects an addition of 28,000 jobs this time, which is a significant improvement compared to last month's reduction of 32,000 jobs.

But don't celebrate too early. Some analysts have poured cold water on it: ADP only counts private enterprises, and the sample coverage is inherently narrow. Additionally, recent inflation data and wage growth have been fluctuating wildly, so this number may be inflated. Especially with layoffs reported all over in the tech and retail sectors, if the actual data falls short of expectations, the market may tremble again.

What’s more troublesome is that when the Department of Labor will officially resume the release of non-farm reports is still a mystery. The October data originally scheduled for this Friday is likely to be postponed, and investors can only piece together the truth from fragmented information like ADP, job vacancies, and unemployment claims. In other words, everyone is groping in the dark.

This is not a trivial matter for the crypto market. If the ADP data exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve's attitude of "not in a hurry to cut interest rates" may become firmer, and liquidity expectations will need to be pushed back a bit. Conversely, if the data disappoints, expectations for interest rate cuts will rise, and risk assets will become restless again.