Key support is in jeopardy, Bitcoin may experience a significant pullback.

1. Bitcoin Market Review for This Week ( 10.27~11.02 )

• Trend: Surge followed by a decline → Unilateral drop → Slight oversold rebound

• Opening price: 114551 points

• Lowest price: 106303 points (Thursday)

• Highest price: 116381 points (Monday)

• Closing price: 110530 points

• Price Change: Weekly decline of 3.51%, maximum fluctuation of 9.48%

• Trading volume: $13.938 billion

• Technical aspect: The weekly candlestick closed as a medium bearish candle, “engulfing” most of last week's bullish candle.

Bitcoin Weekly K-Line Chart: ( Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model )

Figure 1

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 2

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart:

Figure three

The author predicted in the weekly review on October 26:

1. Currently, there is a demand for a rebound after an oversold condition at the daily level. Next week, the coin price is expected to have an upward trend, continuing to observe the key area of 114000~116000 points; if it encounters resistance and falls back, it will test the support at 106000 points, and the trend will maintain a weak oscillating pattern.

2. Resistance Levels: The first resistance range is expected to be between 114,000 and 116,000 points, while the second resistance level is around 120,000 points.

3. Support levels: The first support level is around 106,000 points, and the second support level is around 103,000 points.

The trading strategy provided by the author in the weekly review on October 26 is:

1. Mid-line strategy: The market is currently in a range-bound oscillation pattern, and the trend has not yet become clear, so the main focus is on waiting and observing.

2. Short-term strategy: Focus on the test results of the coin price in the key area of 114000 ~ 116000 points; if the coin price shows resistance signals in this area, enter short as planned, set the stop-loss near 116000 points, and the first target is around 106000 points; if it stabilizes, close the position.

This week's actual trend review:

This week, Bitcoin showed a trend of “rising sharply and then falling back, unilateral decline, and bottom rebound.” Specifically, at the beginning of the week, the coin price opened flat and quickly surged, reaching a high of 116381 points before facing pressure and falling back; then, in the following three trading days, it experienced a continuous unilateral decline until it found support at 106303 points. In the latter half of the week, the market entered a technical rebound phase after a significant drop. The actual high point of 116381 and low point of 106303 this week closely align with the key points predicted by the author earlier. The overall operating rhythm once again validates the author's judgment about the market maintaining a “weak range oscillation.”

This week's operational review:

• Mid-term strategy: Based on the author's prediction of “maintaining a weak range oscillation,” no trades were conducted this week.

• Short-term strategy: This week, trading was executed based on the author's established short-term strategy, and profits have been successfully realized.

Based on the market performance this week, I will comprehensively use multiple technical frameworks to conduct an in-depth analysis of the evolution of the internal structure of Bitcoin.

1. As shown in Figure 1, from the weekly chart perspective:

• Momentum Quantitative Model: After this week's adjustments, the two momentum lines continue to run downward, energy ( negative ) column growth, and short-selling energy is gradually strengthening.

The model indicates the coin price drop index: during the adjustment process.

• Emotion Quantification Model: Both emotion indicators have an intensity of 0, and the peak value is 0.

The model predicts the coin price pressure index: Neutral

• Digital monitoring model: No digital signal displayed.

The above data indicates: the weekly level is still in an adjustment pattern.

2. As shown in Figure 2, analyze from the daily chart:

• Momentum Quantitative Model: After Sunday’s market close, the two momentum lines slowly rose after a “golden cross” below the zero axis, gradually approaching the zero axis.

• Emotion Quantification Model: Both emotion indicators were around 46 after Sunday trading.

The above data indicates: during the oversold rebound process at the daily level.

2. Market Forecast for Next Week: ( 11.03~11.09 )

1. Bitcoin has been oscillating between 106,000 and 116,000 points for three weeks. It is expected that this oscillation pattern will continue next week, but as time goes on, the probability of the coin price dropping into the new oscillation range of 98,000 to 106,000 points is increasing.

2. Resistance Level: The first resistance level is around 116,000 points, and the important resistance level is around 120,000 points.

3. Support level: The first support level is around 106,000 points, the second support level is around 103,000 points, and the important support level is at 98,000 points.

3. Next Week's Operation Strategy ( Exclude the Impact of Sudden News ): ( 11.03~11.09 )

1. Medium-term strategy: If a fluctuating downward trend appears next week, I will attempt to establish a medium-term position. Please pay attention to the link at the bottom of the article for specific strategies.

2. Short-term Strategy: Control position size, set stop loss points, and based on resistance and support levels, perform high sell and low buy operations. ( use 60-minute/240-minute as the operating cycle ).

• The coin price fluctuates within the range of 106,000 to 116,000 points, with particular attention to the changes in trend near the upper and lower edges of the range.

• If the coin price pulls back to the 103000~106000 point area and shows bottom signals, enter the market to go long as planned, set the stop loss near 103000 points, and target around 116000 points. If resistance signals appear near key points, take profit.

• If the coin price rebounds to the 114000 ~116000 point area and encounters resistance signals, enter short as planned, set the stop loss above 116000 points, the first target is aimed at around 106000 points, the second target is aimed at around 103000 points, and if a stabilization signal appears near the key point, take profits.

IV. Special Note:

1. When opening a position: immediately set the initial stop loss level.

2. When the profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss position to the cost price (break-even point) to ensure that the trade no longer incurs a loss.

3. When profits reach 2%: move the stop-loss position to the 1% profit position.

4. Tracking: After that, for every 1% increase in the coin price, the stop-loss position will move up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in existing profits.

(Note: The above 1% profit trigger threshold can be flexibly adjusted by investors based on their own risk preferences and the volatility of the underlying asset.)

The financial market is ever-changing, with fluctuations in prices. I will dynamically adjust trading strategies at any time. If investors want to receive the latest operational insights every day, please pay attention to the “比推TG交流群” at the bottom of the article, where they can read my intraday commentary articles published daily to obtain the latest operational insights in a timely manner.

The various models above are the trading rules I follow when operating, and do not constitute any basis for buying or selling. Personal opinion, for reference only.

Author: Cody Feng