$BTC

📊 New Day, New Data

Momentum looks strong, but we're nearing important supply. Let's dive in:

Price:
Price bounced from weekend demand we created previous week and took out the daily supply. Currently still within the range and took out the high.

Given the current structure and data, I expect a move lower, at least to sweep the weekly low, and ideally to fill the CME gap around 110.7K.

If we find buyers stepping in there, I’ll be watching for fresh demand to form and confirmation for potential longs later in the week.

Time (Weekly):
⚠️ 70% chance to take out the low
❌ 99% chance to take out the high, if the low holds
🔴 Bias: bearish

Time (Daily):
⚠️ 36% chance to take out the low
❌ 99% chance to take out the high, if the low holds
⚠️ 95% of daily lows form later
🔴 Bias: bearish

Distance (Weekly):
⚠️ 35% chance to take out the low
❌ 100% chance for more displacement
⚠️ 95% of weekly lows have a bigger wick
🔴 Bias: bearish

Distance (Daily):
✅ 18% chance to take out the low
❌ 93% chance for more displacement
🟢 Bias: bullish

TL;DR:
Still expecting lower, likely a sweep of the weekly low and a CME gap fill around 110.7K before any meaningful bounce.