Favourable Information frequently emerges in the market, yet there are no waves – the "political lock-in period" of the B circle.

In the past few days, the dullness of the market has been almost visible to the naked eye. On the data level, there is a lot of Favourable Information, but the prices remain steady. The question is: who is buying? And who is selling?

Next week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is almost a done deal, with only the difference between 25 or 50 basis points. Logically, such macro Favourable Information should be enough to ignite a wave of sentiment, but the market seems to have been pressed with a "pause button"—staying half-alive.

Traders believe that a new round of real market momentum must be predicated on the "opening of U.S. politics."
The U.S. government shutdown is like a hard iron wedge forcibly inserted into the market gears, completely jamming the rhythm that was originally functioning normally.

Currently, there are two key events affected by this that have come to a standstill:

1️⃣ The b-circle regulatory bill is on hold: The most landmark cryptocurrency regulatory legislation in U.S. history is stuck in the Senate due to a government shutdown, unable to move.
2️⃣ Spot ETF approval frozen: Several potential spot ETFs, including LTC and SOL, have been forced to suspend their approval progress - and these were originally recognized by the market as the "igniters" for the next round of market trends.

The current market trend is undergoing a fundamental shift.
In the short term, the most important variable is no longer charts, technical indicators, inflation, or employment data, but rather - the political dynamics in the United States.

The China-U.S. tariff war, Trump's verbal battles, party disputes... a series of events have led the entire market into a "politically sensitive period."
The macroeconomy is sending bullish signals, while the political landscape is conveying bearish expectations - this is a confrontation of "bullish economy vs bearish politics."

The rebound rhythm during this period appears particularly weak. Favourable Information is emerging continuously, yet prices are only inching upward. Normally, such a macro environment should be enough to trigger a strong rally, but due to the uncertainty of the political stalemate, institutions generally choose to stand by, unwilling to place directional bets. No one is willing to "go all in" on a gamble when the direction is unclear, and so what we see is: favourable news gives a slight push, and prices barely lift; a casual remark from Trump causes the market to shake vigorously.

The emergence of strong shipping trends has never been a coincidence.
It requires the joint action of three pillars:

✅ Favourable Information in the macroeconomic environment
✅ Micro data support
✅ The policy environment is stable

All are indispensable.

Therefore, the trader's judgment is: the real trigger for a bull market will be the restart of the US government. When the government resumes operations, the party and government agenda is pushed forward again, coupled with favourable information from data and the approval of ETFs, capital will truly flow back. By that time, institutions will enter the market, confidence will gather, and the market will transition from "retail investors' self-indulgence" to "institutional battles." Before that, this market situation is destined to remain a kind of half-alive "policy idle period."
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