"Geopolitical instability has not canceled the bitcoin bullish market"

The bitcoin market (BTC) is going through a period of uncertainty marked by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, which have pushed the price of the asset towards supports above USD 105,000 in the last week.

According to a financial analyst and commentator, the traditional four-year cycle of bitcoin, governed by the halving and characterized by phases of accumulation, euphoria, and correction, has been fractured.

The above is due to the fact that the Federal Reserve of the United States (FED) “has kept interest rates very high for longer than necessary,” according to the analyst. This, in addition to the growing international tension between that country and China.

This aligns with the vision of Arthur Hayes, founder of a trading platform, who claims that traditional bitcoin cycles are “dead”. This is because the stimulus policies anticipated by major economies could generate a liquidity injection that benefits BTC, altering the historical four-year pattern.

The analyst argues that “the FED's pause and geopolitical instability have only slightly delayed the inevitable,” as the “rules of the game have changed.” As he sees it, the cryptocurrency market has ceased to be dominated by retail investors and now depends on large institutional funds.

“We no longer compete against the typical internet nerds. Now we compete against the largest capital in the world,” he states. This last part refers to the massive entry of institutions and ETFs ( into the bitcoin ecosystem.

The financial commentator also shared a graph, where the behavior of bitcoin after the last four recorded halvings is observed. There it shows the delay that, according to him, has hung over BTC due to macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions:

![Purple, green, orange, and gray line chart reflecting BTC behavior after halvings.])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-94b0957073-e90cb6f5e7-153d09-69ad2a.webp(

The international context supports this reading. Representatives from the United States and China confirmed a new round of trade negotiations in Malaysia next week. The aim is to reduce tensions ahead of a possible meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Although the U.S. president has downplayed the threat of new tariffs, the financial market is reacting cautiously, awaiting a lasting truce.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed that dialogue will be key to “redirecting” bilateral relations. The talks come as the expiration of the tariff truce agreed upon in January approaches, increasing pressure on both economies and on commodity markets and digital assets.

It should be noted that, on Friday, October 10, the price of bitcoin plummeted from USD 122,000 to USD 103,000 after Trump hinted at the possibility of rekindling the trade war with China. Although the asset's price later recovered to USD 115,000, the same geopolitical factors pushed BTC down again. At the time of writing this report, BTC has an average price of USD 107,000.

The drop in the price of BTC caused fear to spike in the market, with the )Fear and Greed Index( currently reaching a value of 27 points, reflecting a predominance of fear in the sector.