BTC Market Analysis on October 19

1. Trend Analysis

· Clear bearish pattern: Price is below all EMAs, showing a complete bearish alignment.
· Deep correction status: dropped from the high of 132,574.5 to the current 107,037.1, a decline of about 19%
· Key Position: The price is testing the support near 107,000, but the overall trend remains bearish.

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Strong bearish signal:
· MACD value -1508.9 shows strong bearish momentum
· DIF(-1873.4) is significantly lower than DEA(-363.5), with a huge difference.
· This is a typical signal of accelerated downtrend.

3. Volume Analysis

· Significant shrinkage: The current trading volume of 3.312 billion is far below the 5-day average of 10.678 billion and the 10-day average of 11.377 billion.
· Market Meaning: During the decline, buying pressure is scarce, but selling pressure is also relatively mild.
· Be cautious: If there is a significant drop in volume, it may accelerate the decline.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Strong Resistance 1: 108,926.9 (EMA5)
· Strong resistance 2: 109,129.8 (EMA180)
· Strong Resistance 3: 111,502.6 (EMA10)
· Support Levels:
· Key support: 106,421.0 (24-hour low)
· Strong support: 101,652.8 (previous low)

Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (60% probability): continue to test the previous low support.

1. Reason: MACD bearish momentum is strong + moving averages are in a bearish arrangement + price has broken below all key levels
2. Downward target:
· First target: 106,421.0 (testing 24-hour low)
· Second target: 101,652.8 (key support from previous low)
3. Nature Judgment: If it falls below 101,652, it may trigger a deeper decline.

Possible scenario (30% probability): technical rebound

1. Condition: Support is found near 106,421, leading to an oversold rebound.
2. Rebound target: 108,900-109,100 range (EMA5-EMA180 resistance zone)
3. Requirement: Need to increase trading volume.

Low probability scenario (10% probability): Strong reversal

1. Condition: Major positive news drives buying pressure
2. Features: High volume long bullish breakout above 109,129 and stabilizing.
3. Extremely low probability: The current technical indicators strongly support further decline.

Trading Advice

For holders of long positions:

· It is recommended to reduce positions on rebounds: consider reducing positions in the range of 107,500-108,000.
· Strict stop loss: set below 106,300
· If it falls below 106,421, you should exit immediately.

For short sellers/wait-and-see observers:

· You can short with a light position between 107,200 and 107,600, with a stop loss above 108,200.
· Target levels: 106,421, 101,652
· Wait for a pullback to the support area of 101,652 before considering placing a long position.

Key Points of Risk Control:

· Key Observation Points:
· Is the support at 106,421 effective?
· Changes in Trading Volume
· 108,926 resistance strength
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 109,200
· Long position entry point: around 101,652 (previous low support)

Risk Warning

1. The technical outlook has fully turned bearish, and there is unlikely to be strong performance in the short term.
2. The previous low support of 101,652 is a key defense line; if it is breached, it will open up greater downside potential.
3. Overall market sentiment is weak, affecting BTC's independent performance.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop-loss, and control risk.

Summary: BTC is currently in a clear bearish trend, with multiple technical indicators sending strong bearish signals. The probability of continuing to test the support levels of 106,421 and 101,652 in the short term is relatively high. The strategy should focus on shorting at highs, with strict risk control, and patiently waiting for better opportunities to enter long.