Market Crash Review: The Beginning of a Deep Bear, or a Reshuffle of the Bull Market?

The core controversy of this plunge is—
Is it the beginning of a new round of bear market, or a deep cleansing during the bull market?
From the perspective of the event chain, the causality is very clear.

1. The Trigger of the Plunge
From October 5 to 6, BTC reached a historic high of $126,000.
Market sentiment is high, and leveraged funds have accumulated to a historical peak.
However, at the peak of the celebration, the escalation of U.S. tariffs on China and software export restrictions became an external shock.
Instantly reversed the pricing logic of global risk assets.
The macroeconomic bearish sentiment brought by "General Chuan" has precisely pierced through the high-leverage bubble within the cryptocurrency market.
According to cross-validation from multiple data sources, the daily long liquidation scale reached approximately $19 billion.
One of the most extreme single-day deleveraging events in history.
In just a few short hours, the market narrative switched from "new high frenzy" to "liquidity crunch."
$BTC has retraced nearly 18% from its peak in a few days —
This is the second cliff drop at a high position this year.

2. Does this mean that a deep bear market is coming?
I believe that the market is more likely to enter a high-level consolidation period lasting 4 to 8 weeks.
and digest panic and leverage over time.
Of course, the possibility of evolving into a "structural deep bear" cannot be ruled out.
There are mainly three reasons:
1️⃣ Nature of Policy Shocks
This event is not a financial sanction, but a repricing of risk premium.
This means the impact is limited and has not shaken the foundation of liquidity.
2️⃣ ETF capital flow remains supportive
The trend of fund inflows into ETFs has not been completely destroyed.
A window has been left for the market to repair its risk preferences.
3️⃣ The market self-repair mechanism is still in operation.
High leverage and impulsive emotions have been washed out,
BTC is likely to oscillate between the $100,000–$120,000 range.
Exchange time for space to complete a "health shuffle."

Three, the key stage ahead
The next two months will be a key observation period to determine whether the market can shift to a structural bear market.
At this stage, the primary task is not to speculate on rebounds, but to survive.
In the current market driven by ETF spot trading at its core,
Rational traders should choose to exchange time for certainty.
Wait until the signals on the right side become clear before considering to actively increase positions or go long.