Analysis of Recent Market Volatility Reasons

Direct trigger: Trump's recent remarks have sparked market panic, with his proposal to impose a 100% tariff on some of our goods directly leading to a market crash, significantly dragging down the U.S. stock market.
Root cause: This reflects the deep-seated contradictions within the United States. The government shutdown and fiscal crisis have led the Trump administration to attempt to shift domestic attention by creating external conflicts.
Essential Judgment: This extreme pressure trade policy is essentially a double-edged sword, which not only harms the opponent but also impacts the U.S. economy and businesses.

 

Future Situation Outlook and Investment Recommendations

Short-term trend: The market's panic sentiment is expected to be temporary. Historical experience shows that such severe fluctuations triggered by political statements will ultimately return to rationality.
Key event: The upcoming APEC meeting this month is an important observation window. It is expected that the leaders of China and the United States may meet during this time, and the tariff issue is likely to be eased or handled with less emphasis.
Macro Support: From a fundamental perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates within the year remains high, which will provide important support to the market. The overall macroeconomic environment has not fundamentally deteriorated.
Investment Strategy: Every significant drop caused by panic emotions may be a buying opportunity for quality assets.
- Spot investors: There is no need to panic excessively; consider adding to positions at key support levels to lower the cost basis.
Avoid chasing highs and selling lows: After a significant drop, do not blindly cut losses to avoid giving away cheap shares before the dawn.