Why I'm Skeptical of Bitcoin's Fair Value Gap Analysis

I’ve been watching Bitcoin’s recent price action with growing concern. After breaking below $114,000, the cryptocurrency appears increasingly vulnerable as sellers continue to apply pressure. While many analysts are quick to identify technical patterns that predict future movements, I find myself questioning the reliability of these forecasts - particularly those based on Fair Value Gaps (FVGs).

The recent analysis by Xanrox caught my attention. He’s predicting a significant crash based on an unfilled FVG that supposedly needs to be “filled” as price pulls back. According to this theory, Bitcoin will first test $110,600 before eventually breaking lower to $104,800, with an ultimate target below $60,000 in 2026.

But here’s my issue with this analysis: FVGs represent price imbalances where buying and selling activity is unequal - essentially price voids where trading activity skipped certain levels. While they can indicate potential reversal or continuation points, treating them as guaranteed targets that “must be filled” strikes me as overly deterministic.

The market doesn’t operate on such certainties. What about the institutional money flowing into Bitcoin? What about macroeconomic factors like inflation trends or regulatory developments? These fundamental drivers often trump technical patterns.

The analysis also relies heavily on Elliott Wave Theory, suggesting we’ve completed five waves and are now heading into a bearish cycle. But Elliott Wave interpretations are notoriously subjective - what one analyst sees as a completed five-wave structure, another might view entirely differently.

The breaking of the five-month trendline is certainly noteworthy, but single technical breaks rarely tell the complete story. Markets are complex systems influenced by countless variables.

I’m not saying Bitcoin can’t drop further - it absolutely might. But making dramatic predictions based primarily on technical patterns like FVGs seems questionable at best. Smart traders consider multiple factors and maintain healthy skepticism toward any analysis claiming to know precisely where prices are headed.

Before making investment decisions, consider your own risk tolerance and time horizon rather than following apocalyptic price predictions based on technical patterns alone.