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U.S. President Trump is preparing to restart negotiations on the North American trade protocol.
The U.S. government is planning to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). To my knowledge, the Office of the Trade Representative will hold a public hearing before October 4. They are likely to issue feedback requests to businesses and unions this week, indicating that the Trump administration is eager to implement its trade policies.
I have personally experienced the fluctuations of the previous rounds of trade negotiations, and to be honest, this time may be even more intense. The market has already reacted, with the USD/CAD and USD/MXN showing slight declines, but this is just the beginning.
The issue of tariffs has always been controversial. As an ordinary investor, I often think: is it worth bearing the risks of rising prices and potential trade wars while protecting domestic industries? Economists have differing opinions on this, but the impact on our daily lives is very real.
Trump's tariff plan clearly focuses on Mexico, China, and Canada—these three countries account for 42% of total U.S. imports. Mexico, with an export value of $466.6 billion, has become the largest exporter, which also explains why it is a primary target of Trump's tariff policy. Notably, he also plans to use tariff revenue to lower personal income taxes, which could be a sweet deal for the American public.
Recently, market volatility has intensified, with gold and silver experiencing significant pullbacks after reaching new highs, and Bitcoin also retreating from its peak of $124,000, leading to over $600 million in positions being liquidated. At the same time, China has implemented stricter restrictions on rare earth exports, causing severe impacts on the semiconductor supply chain.
This series of events indicates that we are in a complex and changing global trade environment, where any policy adjustment could trigger a chain reaction. As investors, it is essential to closely monitor these developments.