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The Fed's meeting minutes cautiously hint at further rate cuts this year.
On October 9, Fed officials' disagreements over the future direction of interest rates have grown larger, but most believe that further rate cuts are necessary this year. The minutes from the Fed's September meeting released on Wednesday show that the committee is struggling to respond to conflicting economic signals and is finding it difficult to reach a consensus on whether stubborn inflation or a weak labor market is the more pressing issue. The minutes indicate that Fed officials unanimously agree that, given the recent weak employment data, a rate cut is warranted, but there are divisions among officials regarding the future path. However, the minutes show that "most believe that further easing of policy may be appropriate for the remainder of this year." Nonetheless, some policymakers "pointed out that, based on several indicators, financial conditions suggest that monetary policy is not particularly restrictive, and they believe it is necessary to take a cautious approach." According to September's forecasts, 10 Fed officials indicated that they expect two more rate cuts this year, while 9 believe there should be one or fewer.