Derivative traders anticipate bullish Bitcoin momentum in October

Bitcoin traders are positioning for a positive October. Despite economic uncertainties and past trends, many believe the leading crypto could see upside volatility soon.

Bitcoin dropped 2.8% last month. But it's bounced back recently. Up about 2.5% in just two days to around $172K. On-chain data shows it's trading at roughly $172,450 now. Trading volume jumped 6.9% in the last day to $84.3 billion.

October's historical patterns challenge traditional Bitcoin seasonality

Bitcoin's cumulative volume deltas look stable. Interesting. There's more passive bidding at 10% order book depth. This suggests the recent price bump isn't from aggressive buying. Just more passive accumulation.

BTC's price moves seem connected to perpetual futures. Open interest grew 2.2% to $36 billion in two days. Traders are positioning before economic data drops.

Last month closed negative. First bearish month since June. Makes some people nervous. September's usually tough for Bitcoin. Kind of a pattern.

On-chain data tells a story going back to 2013. Bitcoin was just $13.22 then. Wild times. It hit $1,132 by year-end. Since then, eight of twelve Septembers turned bearish. Average returns down about 3.5% in these red months.

People call it the "September Effect." Happens when traders lock in summer profits. Or rebalance before Q4. Bearish Septembers often lead to bullish Octobers. Sellers get tired.

Rekt Fencer thinks this October will be good for BTC. Sees parallels to 2017. The charts look similar. Late September drop, support found, then higher.

In 2017, Bitcoin tested final support before exploding toward $20,000. Today's action looks familiar. BTC consolidating between $165,000 and $172,000. Might be building a foundation for another big run. At least that's what some analysts believe.

Traders anticipate upcoming Fed rate adjustments to impact Bitcoin's trajectory

Sean Dawson from Dervie sees seasonal patterns making investors rethink positions. Options traders seem bullish for October 24 expiry. Lots of interest at $180,000, $190,000, and $200,000 strike prices.

"Since market makers are net long gamma, increases in Bitcoin's price will likely be moderated by hedge selling. Similarly, price decreases will also be minimized as dealers would need to buy to hedge their positions."

-Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Dervie.

On-chain data shows 28% implied volatility for October. One-week 25 delta options gauge jumped to 11 recently. Seems investors are hedging against price swings.

Friday's jobs report could be crucial. It might determine Bitcoin's short-term direction. Dawson thinks a strong report would help protect against downside. Not necessarily trigger a rally.

Markets expect the Fed to adjust rates October 15. The probability sits at 85.4%. It's mostly priced in. But if the Fed doesn't deliver? October could get rough for Bitcoin. Not entirely clear what would happen then.