Aussie Dollar Takes a Hit Despite Lousy US Job Numbers

The AUD/USD pair is struggling around 0.6465 as I watch the Asian markets open Monday morning, and I can't help but feel frustrated at how the Aussie dollar keeps getting pushed around despite favorable conditions. Even with those pathetic US jobs numbers, our dollar still can't catch a break!

Friday's US employment data was a proper disaster - just 73,000 jobs added in July compared to the expected 110,000. Even worse, June's numbers were slashed from 147,000 down to a measly 14,000! US unemployment ticked up to 4.2% too. You'd think this would send the greenback tumbling, but here we are with the USD showing surprising resilience.

Sure, Fed funds futures traders are now betting on 63 basis points of cuts by year-end (up from 34 bps before the jobs report), but the market seems reluctant to fully commit to dollar weakness. I've seen this movie before - bad US data somehow doesn't translate to the expected currency moves.

What's really got me worried is this US-China trade situation. They failed to extend their tariff pause during talks in Stockholm, and that deadline is looming on August 12. Trump will ultimately make the call, and let's be honest - his decisions aren't exactly predictable! While tariffs have been reduced (US down from 145% to 30%, China from 125% to 10%), any deterioration in relations could hammer the Aussie given our economic ties to China.

Looking at the charts, I'm seeing resistance around 0.6490 and support at 0.6430. The technical indicators are giving mixed signals, but I'm leaning bearish given the global uncertainty and surprising dollar strength.

I've been watching this pair closely for months, and it's infuriating how economic fundamentals sometimes just don't matter. With gold prices climbing and clear signs of US economic weakness, the AUD should be performing better. Instead, we're stuck in this frustrating range while waiting for the next headline to move markets.