AUD/USD Climbing Near Weekly Highs as USD Weakens Before Crucial Payrolls Data

I've been watching the Aussie dollar push higher against a seriously weak greenback today, touching near 0.6545 and eyeing that weekly resistance around 0.6560. Gotta say, this USD weakness has been building all week - and for good reason.

Those employment numbers we saw earlier this week were downright disappointing. ADP only showed 54K new jobs (half of July's figure!) and those jobless claims jumped to 237K. Wall Street's already pricing in Fed cuts next month, and honestly, they're probably right this time.

Today's NFP report is the big one though. Analysts are expecting around 75K new jobs, which would basically match July's pathetic 73K figure that sent the dollar into a nosedive last month. If we see another soft print - which seems likely given Thursday's data - expect more USD bleeding.

Meanwhile, the Aussie's getting a nice boost from those trade balance numbers we saw yesterday. That wider-than-expected surplus has pretty much killed any chance of the RBA cutting rates in September. The monetary policy divergence is becoming clearer by the day - Fed preparing to cut while RBA holds steady.

I've traded through enough cycles to know this pattern - when central bank paths diverge this clearly, the currency effects can be dramatic. Those dovish Fed speakers this week haven't helped the dollar's case either. They're practically telegraphing rate cuts at this point.

The market's positioning makes perfect sense here. With global trade uncertainties lurking but Australia showing economic resilience, the path of least resistance for AUD/USD seems upward, at least until the NFP report potentially reshuffles the deck.

Trade wisely though - these pre-NFP moves can reverse quickly if the jobs report surprises. But based on all indicators so far, the dollar's on shaky ground heading into this crucial data release.