Prediction: What will NVIDIA's stock price be in three years?

Key Points

• NVIDIA stock has performed exceptionally well in recent years.
• The company has established a strong technological moat and has vast growth opportunities.
• Stocks still have significant upside potential in the next three years.

NVIDIA(NASDAQ: NVDA) occupies a central position in the wave of artificial intelligence(AI), and its stock has therefore benefited greatly. The question now is, what will happen next?

Investors already know that Nvidia's stock has performed exceptionally well, but can it continue to maintain this leading advantage? Let's take a look at why I believe this stock is likely to continue to lead the market, as well as the potential direction of its share price over the next three years.

Technical Moat and Ecosystem Advantages

NVIDIA has become the clear leader in the graphics processing unit ( GPU ) market, with these chips being core components that support AI workloads in data center infrastructure. However, the company's dominance comes not only from its excellently designed chips but also from the complete ecosystem built around them.

This ecosystem began with its software platform CUDA, which enables developers to program for GPUs, achieving applications that go beyond their original design purposes. We easily forget that GPUs were originally developed to accelerate graphics rendering in video games.

Although the growth of applications outside of gaming started slowly, NVIDIA wisely made the CUDA software available for free to universities and research groups—where early AI development took place. This led to an entire generation of developers being trained on its platform, creating a sticky user base. Over time, these developers built tools and libraries on top of CUDA. This is one of the important reasons why customers find it difficult to leave NVIDIA, as migration requires rewriting a significant amount of code and retraining employees, which is too costly.

NVIDIA has not only established an advantage in software but has also made network technology another strong point. NVIDIA's NVLink technology allows its GPUs to work together as a single system, which is crucial for training increasingly large AI models. While competitors are trying to develop open-source interconnect systems, AI clusters currently perform best when using NVIDIA GPUs exclusively. The company's previous acquisition of Mellanox further enhanced its networking capabilities. In the last quarter, its networking revenue nearly doubled to $7.3 billion, showcasing the company's strength in network technology.

With a vast moat built on CUDA and a network platform, Nvidia achieved an astonishing 94% market share in the GPU sector in the second quarter. Despite not selling any H20 chips to Chinese customers last quarter (reportedly resulting in a loss of about $8 billion), the company still experienced rapid growth. Overall, second-quarter revenue grew by 56% year-over-year to $46.74 billion, with data center revenue increasing by 56% to $41.1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 52% to $1.05.

As long as AI infrastructure spending continues to grow, Nvidia can maintain a good momentum of development. So far, all signs indicate that this growth will continue. Cloud computing companies are increasing their capital expenditures on AI data centers to meet the rising demand, while AI model companies continue to invest heavily in building more advanced large language models (LLM). At the same time, with the increase in AI usage, the inference market is also rapidly expanding.

NVIDIA may also benefit from resuming chip sales to China. The company expects to soon obtain export licenses from the U.S. government, allowing it to sell the functionally-reduced H20 chips to China again. It is reported that once approved to sell to Chinese customers, the company is ready to ship chips worth between $2 billion and $5 billion immediately.

NVIDIA Stock Price Trend Prediction

NVIDIA hinted that it may maintain a 50% compound annual growth rate ( CAGR ) in the future. Analysts expect its current fiscal year revenue, ending in January, to be around $206 billion. At this growth rate, by 2028 (, which basically corresponds to the fiscal year 2029 ending in January ), its revenue is expected to reach about $700 billion.

If the company's adjusted operating expenses grow by an average of 7% per quarter before the 2028 (2029 fiscal year ), maintaining a gross margin of about 73% and applying a 15% tax rate to its operating income, Nvidia could generate over $390 billion in adjusted earnings by the 2028 (2029 fiscal year ). Based on the current share count of 2.45 billion, this equates to about $16 per share. If the stock is given a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 to 25 ( P/E ), its stock price could range between $320 and $400 three years later.

The following is the basic model of its revenue and profit growth:

| | Fiscal Year 2026 | Fiscal Year 2027 | Fiscal Year 2028 | Fiscal Year 2029 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue | 206 billion USD | 310 billion USD | 464 billion USD | 697 billion USD | | Gross Profit | $151 billion | $226 billion | $339 billion | $509 billion | | Adjusted Operating Expenses | $16 billion | $27 billion | $36 billion | $47 billion | | Operating Income | 135 billion USD | 199 billion USD | 303 billion USD | 462 billion USD | | Net Income | 114 billion USD | 169 billion USD | 258 billion USD | 392 billion USD | | Earnings per Share | $4.67 | $6.90 | $10.51 | $16.01 |

If Nvidia's stock price can reach $350 to $400 within three years ( currently around $171 ), it would be a strong return, which is why the stock remains a worthwhile investment option to consider.

For digital asset investors, NVIDIA, as a leader in AI and high-performance computing infrastructure, has a development trajectory worth paying attention to. With the increasing demand for computing power from Web3 applications, NFT creation, and metaverse platforms, NVIDIA's technology will continue to play a key role in these emerging fields, providing technical support for traditional markets and the emerging digital economy.