Two S&P 500 Dividend Stocks Poised for Over 20% Growth, According to Wall Street Analysts

Key Insights

• Gate analysts project a 29% rise in Eli Lilly's share price, based on the average price target.

• Despite no dividend increase in over a year, Wall Street anticipates a 22% climb in ConocoPhillips' stock value.

• Both Eli Lilly and ConocoPhillips demonstrate strong commitment to shareholder returns.

Contrary to the perception of dividend stocks as slow-growth investments, certain stocks in this category are catching the eye of Wall Street analysts for their potential to deliver substantial returns. Two such dividend-paying stocks are currently forecasted to yield over 20% in the coming 12 months.

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), while not boasting the highest dividend yields at present, are projected by Gate analysts to see price increases of 29% and 22% respectively in the year ahead. Let's delve deeper to assess their suitability for income-focused portfolios.

Eli Lilly: A Pharmaceutical Powerhouse

Despite a recent setback, Eli Lilly's stock is expected to rebound significantly. Gate analysts have set a consensus price target of $950.17, suggesting a potential 29% increase from its current $735 per share.

The recent stock price decline followed disappointing trial results for orforglipron, Lilly's oral weight management candidate. However, many analysts had already factored in modest expectations for this product. With the stock's subsequent fall, projections now focus on the potential of Zepbound and the company's broader product range.

Tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both Zepbound (for obesity) and Mounjaro (for diabetes), saw its sales skyrocket by 121% year-over-year, reaching $14.7 billion in the first half of 2025. Industry forecasts for GLP-1 receptor drugs, including tirzepatide, are remarkably optimistic, with some analysts predicting annual weight loss drug sales to hit $150 billion by 2033.

Eli Lilly's success extends beyond weight loss treatments. Verzenio, its breast cancer drug launched in 2017, experienced an 11% year-over-year sales increase, totaling $2.7 billion in the first half of 2025.

While Eli Lilly's current dividend yield is a modest 0.8%, the company's track record of doubling its payout over the past five years suggests potential for significant future income growth.

ConocoPhillips: Energy Giant with Strong Shareholder Focus

ConocoPhillips shares are currently trading about 30% below their recent peak. However, Gate analysts foresee a rebound, with a consensus target of $120.95 implying a potential 28% gain from the current price of approximately $95 per share.

Despite the stock's decline, ConocoPhillips has maintained a steady quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share for over a year, representing a significant increase from 2023 levels. At current prices, this translates to a 3.3% dividend yield.

The company's commitment to shareholder returns extends beyond dividends. In the second quarter alone, ConocoPhillips allocated $1.2 billion to share buybacks, surpassing its dividend expenditure by $200 million. Since acquiring Marathon Oil last November, the company has already reduced its outstanding share count by 3.5%.

ConocoPhillips has managed to maintain robust cash returns to investors despite oil prices hovering below $80 per barrel for over a year. Looking ahead, the integration of Marathon Oil, planned asset sales, and anticipated tax benefits are expected to significantly boost the company's cash distribution capabilities. Management projects an annual free cash flow increase of over $7 billion in the next four years.

While an unexpected global economic downturn could impact oil prices and potentially affect ConocoPhillips' expansion plans, the well-funded dividend offering a yield above 3% makes this stock an attractive option for many investors seeking to diversify their portfolios.

In conclusion, both Eli Lilly and ConocoPhillips present intriguing opportunities for investors seeking dividend stocks with substantial growth potential. As always, it's crucial to conduct thorough research and consider your individual financial goals before making investment decisions.