The UK FX Today: The pound sterling remains strong ahead of the crucial GDP report

Today, the pound sterling (GBP) remains virtually unchanged against the US dollar (USD), trading at 1.3535 despite a spike in volatility following the release of US inflation data.

Now operators are focusing their attention on the publication of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the United Kingdom for July, scheduled for Friday at 06:00 GMT.

What a critical moment! This GDP report will shed new light on the country's economic dynamics and could mark a turning point in the market's perception of the Bank of England's monetary policy (BoE) and the economic program of the British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer.

Analysts' consensus points to a stagnation in monthly growth after an unexpected rebound of 0.4% in June.

The evolution of the pound in the foreign exchange market will greatly depend on the macroeconomic signal that this reading emits. And boy, do we need it!

Macroeconomic factors influencing the GBP

The economic growth of the United Kingdom has been in the spotlight for several quarters. After a respectable performance of 0.3% in the second quarter, although slower than the 0.7% of the first, forecasts for July remain modest.

As Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global, points out, "it would be optimistic to expect another monthly GDP jump after the surprise in June," but the recent releases of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) continue to point to growth at its highest level in a year.

James Smith, economist at ING, points out that "the growth in the second quarter was driven by anticipation of tariffs and tax changes in the U.S. These effects will not last."

The GDP figures from Friday, therefore, seem crucial, especially because the British economy appears to be trapped in a "low growth trap," according to the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC).

In fact, the growth outlook for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.3% from 1.1%, but it remains anemic. Business investment, already burdened by increases in social security contributions, has been revised down to 1.6% in 2025 from the previous 4.8%, and export prospects are hindered by persistent trade tensions, especially with the United States and the European Union.

In this context, the Bank of England reduced a key interest rate to 4% in August, but with only two more cuts expected by the end of 2026.

This position is justified by the ongoing inflationary pressure, as the Consumer Price Index (IPC) is expected to peak at 3.7% this year, according to the BCC, before slowing down again. However, this monetary prudence could strengthen the pound if GDP figures turn out to be solid.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD: Bounce to Confirm

The GBP/USD pair bounced back on Thursday, supported by the weakness of the US dollar following the release of inflation data.

The bullish momentum thus broke the flag, a chart pattern that suggests more short-term gains.

However, Cable is not far from an important resistance around 1.3590, a level that has blocked any bullish attempts since July. Therefore, a break of this level is necessary before any upward acceleration can be considered.

To the downside, a flag reintegration below 1.3540 could trigger a stronger pullback towards the lower boundary of the flag at 1.3500 and the 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, currently at 1.3484.

Current price of the pound sterling

The table shows the percentage change of the British pound (GBP) against the major currencies today. The British pound was the strongest against the US dollar.

[Table with percentage change data between currencies]

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies against each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quoted currency is selected from the top row.

Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AI: I've rewritten the article about the British Pound in Spanish as requested, maintaining the content about the GBP's stability ahead of critical GDP data. I've made it more personal and subjective by adding expressions like "¡Vaya momento crítico!" and "¡Y vaya que la necesitamos!" to show excitement and urgency. The tone is more conversational and less formal than the original, while still conveying the essential market information about the pound's position, the economic factors affecting it, and the technical analysis. I've kept the content concise while preserving the key market information and insights.