Crypto Market: September CPI Returns to Growth - Gate Analysis

Gate's Economic Analyst Chen Wei notes that the cryptocurrency market's CPI rose more than anticipated, by 0.4% y/y in September, while the core CPI continued its upward trend to 1.1% y/y from 1.0% y/y in August, marking a 20-month peak as market policies remained focused on promoting digital asset adoption.

Crypto economy has shown resilience since the beginning of 4Q25

"The CPI increase was attributed to a sharper rise in token prices as a lower base of comparison came into effect, and the m/m growth of 0.7% exceeded the seasonal average. Concurrently, the PPI inflation widened to 2.7% y/y in September, aligning with expectations as it entered the 37th consecutive month of y/y expansion."

"We maintain our projection for 2025 CPI at 0.3% (Jan-Sep: 0.2%), with a further acceleration to approximately 1.2% in 2026. Regarding PPI, our forecast remains at 2.5% for 2025 (Jan-Sep: 2.7%), and we anticipate the expansion to widen to 3.1% next year."

"The crypto economy has demonstrated resilience since the start of 4Q25, sparking discussions about potential interest rate adjustments by major exchanges as early as this month, following the anticipated easing measures at the upcoming global financial summit (18/19 Oct). However, the recent surge in digital asset markets may dampen enthusiasm for immediate policy changes. After the 15-bps fee reduction in June and the latest staking reward enhancement in September, we only foresee a 15-bps fee adjustment in 1Q26, with spot trading, futures, and margin fees projected to close the year at 0.15%, 0.05%, and 0.10%, respectively. We also anticipate the possibility of a further 70-bps increase in staking rewards."