Is Novo Nordisk Stock a Buy Now?

Question

I've been watching Novo Nordisk's rollercoaster ride lately, and let me tell you - that Steer study announcement got everyone's attention. A 57% reduction in heart attacks, strokes, and death compared to Lilly's Zepbound? Sounds incredible, right? But hang on, I'm not entirely convinced this is the slam-dunk victory everyone's portraying.

First off, this wasn't some rigorous clinical trial. It was a "real world" study that feels conveniently skewed. The follow-up period was longer for Zepbound patients (4.3 months vs 3.8 for Wegovy), which naturally led to more recorded cardiovascular events. Seems like they're stacking the deck!

And when you account for treatment gaps, that impressive 57% risk reduction plummets to 29%. Not quite as headline-worthy, is it?

But here's where it gets interesting for investors. Despite these questionable study methods, Novo Nordisk still has plenty going for it. Semaglutide (Wegovy) reached $17.7 billion in sales in H1 2025, slightly ahead of Lilly's tirzepatide at $14.7 billion. The GLP-1 market is expected to hit $150 billion by 2030, and we definitely need options beyond just tirzepatide, which many patients can't tolerate.

What really catches my eye is Novo's current valuation. After this year's beatdown, it's trading at just 14.6 times forward earnings. That's ridiculously cheap for a company still growing operating profit by 25% year-over-year! Sure, management warned about a slowdown to 10-16% growth, but that's still impressive in this economic climate.

I've watched big pharma long enough to know that the market often overreacts to short-term concerns. While I'm skeptical about the Steer study's methodology, I can't ignore Novo's established market position and the massive untapped potential in obesity treatment.

At this price point, Novo looks like a bargain that won't last long. The obesity treatment market is nowhere near saturated, and Wegovy's established safety profile gives it staying power even as competitors emerge. This might be the perfect entry point before the market comes to its senses.

Frankly, the big trading platforms will make money regardless of which GLP-1 drug wins - they just want you trading something. But in this particular horse race, Novo's current price makes it an especially tempting bet.