The NZD/USD falls below 0.5950 ahead of the US inflation figures 🔍

The NZD/USD slips to 0.5930 this Thursday morning in Europe. The dollar is gaining strength. Markets are holding their breath ahead of the US CPI for August, which is scheduled for today.

Barclays sees three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year 📉. September, October, December - 25 basis points each time, they think. Traders seem even more convinced after the disappointing employment report. Some are even talking about a more aggressive cut. The greenback could suffer.

A drastic cut remains unlikely. Too much caution among some FOMC members. The market is counting on 25 points in September, that's a given. The chance of a 50-point decrease? Rising to nearly 12%, according to CME FedWatch 🎯. Interesting.

Christian Hawkesby, governor of the RBNZ, spoke on Thursday. He seems convinced that the official rate will reach 2.5% by the end of the year. The pace? It depends on the data. The speed of New Zealand's economic recovery will play a key role.

The RBNZ resumed its cuts in August. Pause in July, then action. The economy is slowing down, which eases some inflation fears 🌱. Policymakers are keeping an eye on U.S. pricing policies. The global impact worries them. A fragile kiwi economy could weaken the currency.

For the NZD/EUR, we are around 0.4935 on October 3, 2025. Down compared to the 2025 average of 0.5236 EUR for 1 NZD 📊. For 2026? Maybe 0.5164, but it varies according to the models.

The interest rate gap between New Zealand and the eurozone seems favorable for the kiwi in 2025. Rates are likely to be higher there. This could play a role 💹.

The euro area is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025. New Zealand is expected to perform better, apparently. European inflation is decreasing, while New Zealand's inflation is holding up a bit more. These factors will continue to shake up the NZD/EUR pair soon 🚀.