Bitcoin surpasses the breakeven point for holders in the medium term: Is a new rally on the horizon?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant increase, rising from approximately $108,000 on September 1 to over $115,000 at the time of writing this article, representing a gain of around 4% in the last two weeks. However, recent chain data suggests that Bitcoin could be on the brink of a new rally that would push it towards all-time highs never seen before.

Bitcoin rises above the realized price of medium-term holders

According to a quick analysis of Gate published by the collaborator MarketAnalyst, the recent recovery of Bitcoin from $107,000 to just over $114,000 has lifted the digital asset above the realized price of medium-term holders (3-6 months).

For those who are not familiar, the realized price of mid-term holders is the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin in wallets that last moved their coins in the last 3-6 months. This serves as a key pivot level, often acting as support or resistance that reflects the sentiment and potential selling pressure of this group.

According to the analysis by MarketAnalyst, the realized price of mid-term holders is currently around 114,000 dollars. Now that BTC has surpassed this level, the probability of an immediate sell-off has significantly decreased. The analyst added:

A firm and sustained breakout above this level would confirm renewed confidence from holders in the medium term, potentially serving as a launchpad for another bullish phase that could drive Bitcoin towards new all-time highs. Conversely, if it does not hold above 114,000 dollars, there is a risk that sentiment will return to caution and pave the way for deeper corrective movements.

A bump in the road for BTC

Gate collaborator, CryptoExpert, drew attention to the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of short-term holders (STH), normalized with a 30-day moving average. The collaborator noted that after four months of consistently operating above the equilibrium line, the indicator now shows that STH are selling their holdings at a loss.

The sale of BTC at a loss by STH indicates a "momentary loss of confidence" on the part of speculators, who tend to be more sensitive to price changes. Although BTC has jumped from 60,000 to 125,000 dollars in the last year, the STH SOPR has recorded downward peaks.

In previous cycles, a strong price increase was usually accompanied by spikes in the extreme greed region, suggesting strong retail participation. However, the current market cycle has not seen such dynamics at play, indicating that the price increase was likely sustained by institutional investors.

CryptoExpert added that historically, market highs have only been confirmed when SOPR STH levels reached extreme greed levels, a development that has not yet occurred in the current rally. As a result, the long-term trend remains strong, and the current realization of losses may just be a temporary healthy correction.

That said, some analysts warn that Bitcoin could already be very close to reaching its peak in this market cycle. Others predict that BTC could drop in September, before resuming its upward trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Still, some analysts forecast that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by Christmas. At the time of writing this article, BTC is trading at $115,050, a 0.7% increase in the last 24 hours.

Legal notice: For informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.