The pound surged after astonishing figures on British sales 🚀

The pound (GBP) gained ground against its rivals this Friday. The reason? Surprising UK retail sales data for July. The ONS revealed a monthly growth of 0.6% - well above the expected 0.2%. A notable rebound. In June, this same measure had increased by only 0.3%, a figure that was revised downwards.

Over the year, sales show +1.1%. It's slightly below the expected 1.3%, but it still exceeds the revised down 0.9% of June (.

This vigor in sales reflects robust consumption. It could keep the BoE in its restrictive position. More spending, more potential inflation. Makes sense, right? 🔥

The BoE seems ready to keep its rates at 4% this month. British inflation persists, it's clear.

Andrew Bailey, the head of the BoE, appeared hesitant on Wednesday before the Treasury committee. "Rates are going to fall, I think. But how fast? A mystery."

On the markets: The pound rises against the dollar ahead of the US employment figures

• The pound hovers around 1.3470 against the dollar in the European session. GBP/USD rises while the greenback weakens. U.S. NFP data is coming soon, around noon.
• Experts expect 75,000 new jobs. Almost like in July )73 000(. Unemployment could rise to 4.3%.
• The CME FedWatch tool? It leaves no doubt. The Fed will cut its rates in September.

Technical Side: The pound dances around its moving average

The pound is rising to 1.3470 against the dollar. But the short-term trend seems a bit stuck. It is flirting with the 20-day EMA.

The 14-day RSI oscillates between 40 and 60. Nothing exciting. A lateral phase, clearly. 📊

If it goes down? The support at 1.3140 is waiting. In case of an increase? The wall at 1.3600 will need to be monitored.

GBP/EUR in 2025: where are we going? 🌕

By the end of 2025, forecasts place GBP/EUR around 1.085. Some stability, apparently. Slight fluctuations remain possible in the coming months. The fundamentals of both economies continue their dance of influence. The United Kingdom maintains a rather strong position. Despite all the challenges that persist.