Forward

As news spreads that Trump plans to permanently lay off federal employees, market attention has shifted from the government shutdown to the increasing expectations of the Fed's rate cut in October. It has been clearly stated in the weekly report that Trump has initiated a cunning layoff strategy by leveraging the Democrats' rejection of the budget. On one hand, by reducing the workforce data through layoffs, he forces the Fed to consider continuing to cut rates.
On the other hand, attributing the reasons for layoffs to the Democrats' rejection of the budget serves a dual purpose. Although layoffs may put some functional departments on hold, the Fed and the tax department are still operational, and the military is also unaffected. This will not impact Trump's strategy regarding tariffs and geopolitics. Instead, the Fed has lost the data it relies on for assessment and can only rely on forecasts.
The final result is that Trump artificially dropped the U.S. labor data, putting the Fed, which relies on labor data to determine whether to cut interest rates, into a more entangled situation. This should also be the main reason for the market's rise.
Looking at the data for BTC, the price increase has led to a rise in turnover rate. Investors who bought in the last two days are the main force behind the turnover, and the primary reason for buying is the bet that the government shutdown will be helpful for the Fed's interest rate cut in October, and it won't actually cause negative impacts on the economy. Investors believe this will have a positive effect on the risk market.
According to the data from URPD, the chip structure remains quite stable, with more investors still concentrated around $117,000. Even when the price of $BTC dropped below $110,000, there was no significant sell-off, indicating that investor sentiment is very stable.
The specific impact of the shutdown should be known when the US stock market opens next Monday, but from the current perspective, it should be a good thing. #ETH #BTC