The value of Bitcoin is currently in line with my projections from yesterday: it is experiencing downward pressure and is approaching 112,000. Let's examine the situation in detail.

Observing the hourly performance, when the price approaches 112k, the MA360 on the candlestick chart becomes the main technical resistance. The behavior of the volume in relation to the price shows a divergence between increases and decreases. From the perspective of trading volume, the decline is insignificant, suggesting a cautious attitude from the bulls. The possibility of a new test of the MA360 is not ruled out. If it exerts effective pressure again, accompanied by considerable volume at its peak, especially after the appearance of a candle with a long upper shadow, the market could experience an accelerated decline today.

The 4-hour chart also faces crucial technical resistance at the MA90. The previous candlestick formation shows a pattern where the upper and lower shadows and the real body have similar lengths. This pattern indicates a struggle between bulls and bears, with both groups attempting to take control. Judging by the final closing position of the candle, the bulls seem to have a slight advantage and more upward movements could occur. Ultimately, the successful overcoming of the MA90 constitutes the most critical turning point between bulls and bears today.

If the bulls manage to take control and the K line successfully exceeds the MA90, it will increase the likelihood that the price continues its ascent, possibly even reaching the upper limit of the channel shown in the previous chart, which corresponds to the MA360, around 115k. Otherwise, the price could continue its decline at an accelerated pace.

In the daily chart, analyzing the long-term trend pattern, it is very likely that a M-shaped top is forming. The current rebound is facing the technical resistance of the MA15/90 level, which also constitutes the neck of the M-shaped top. Therefore, I believe that the neck, or MA90 level, could be tested multiple times. As the trading volume decreases during these tests, a new bearish momentum could push prices lower.

Moreover, from the perspective of the Fibonacci sequence, the market is currently facing a technical resistance of 0.236. With the overlap of multiple technical resistances, in the absence of strong bullish impulses in the market, the likelihood of the market continuing to accelerate its decline will be considerably high.

However, judging by the trading volume behavior and the KDJ indicator, it is possible that the bulls will attempt to test the MA90 several times in the short term. Driven by the bulls, the MA90 could rise, while the MA30 would continue to correct downward. When the MA30 also crosses the MA90, an opportunity for an accelerated decline could immediately arise.

Currently, the MACD is also trying to form a golden cross for the third time below the 0 axis. If this golden cross fails again, the market will inevitably accelerate its decline. Even if the golden cross is established, but the DIF and DEA do not manage to surpass the 0 axis, the bearish trend will not be altered.

This week, a federal court questioned the legality of the tariff policy of the Trump administration. Trump announced today that his administration will ask the Supreme Court to expedite a decision on global tariff cases, hoping to overturn the federal court ruling that declares several of his tariffs illegal. This could pose a significant risk of an inflationary spike due to the tariffs. However, if the federal government prevails, declaring Trump's tariffs illegal and overturning this year's tariff increases, it would be very positive news that could boost a rapid rebound of Bitcoin.

However, considering the all-time high of gold reached today, a greater risk aversion in the market could indicate the possibility of increased political conflict or an economic recession. Risk assets such as stocks and Bitcoin could experience a sharp decline. U.S. stocks continued their downward trend from yesterday.

The US manufacturing PMI, lower than expected, is a manifestation of the conflict generated by tariffs in the US manufacturing industry and an indication of the risk of an economic recession and an inflationary spike in the United States. This has driven investment in gold, a safe-haven asset, which has led gold prices to new highs.

And on this basis, if the Trump administration is victorious in the tariff matter, this concern about risk could intensify again.

The United States will release non-farm payroll data this Friday, crucial information ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates on the 17th of this month. If Bitcoin has not managed to break through technical resistance before the release of this data, it could indicate a market crash on Friday.

The technical level is just a reference, the impact of news can alter the technical pattern. It is essential to stay updated on relevant market news in a timely manner.

Technical resistance: 112k-115k

Technical support: 111k-108k-107400-105k