Is the RMB rebound encountering obstacles? The offshore market tells me the truth.

The offshore RMB has weakened for three consecutive days. What is going on? After looking at today's market, I can't help but vent a little. Just when the USD/offshore RMB is once again tracking the adjusted central parity, I feel like this is completely a game played by big capital.

Today, the mid-price is 7.1108, which is higher than yesterday's 7.1089 and the day before yesterday's 7.1072, breaking the previous trend of continuous decline for 5 days. This erratic trend is truly incomprehensible for ordinary investors.

From a technical perspective, the bearish momentum on the daily chart is still present but has begun to weaken, and the RSI has also bounced back from an oversold state. Last Friday's shooting star pattern is likely indicating a reversal in the short term. Why does it feel like someone is manipulating things behind the scenes?

Considering the relatively large decline in the previous period, there is indeed a rebound risk in the short term. 7.1460 is a key resistance level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the low in 2024 to the high in 2025), followed by 7.1720/40 (21-day and 50-day moving averages) and 7.20 (100-day moving average, 50% Fibonacci retracement). The support level is around 7.1160.

But seriously, how much of this technical analysis truly reflects market sentiment? I always feel that everyone is making decisions based on the same indicators, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Offshore RMB serves as a more authentic pricing mechanism for the RMB in the international market compared to the onshore market, reflecting market sentiment towards the RMB more accurately. I feel that this recent trend is not purely a market behavior; there may be substantial international funds betting on the short-term direction of the RMB.

The key is to see whether the offshore RMB can break through the critical resistance level. If it breaks 7.1460, there may be a larger rebound. However, if it continues to hover at the current level, it may just be a temporary adjustment before continuing downward.

From the recent performance of the offshore Chinese Yuan, it does reveal some concerns from international investors regarding the Chinese economy. After all, the offshore market is more affected by international factors and can reflect the true supply and demand without central bank intervention.