Investment Insights - While expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (FRB) are increasing, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are shrinking, the exchange rate of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar continues to rise.

On September 8, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) rose to 0.6588, marking the second consecutive day of increase.

In the news, the U.S. employment statistics for August fell short of expectations, and the market's predictions for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve rose significantly.

Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to implement three rate cuts within the year. The probability of a 0.25% cut in September is 90%, while the probability of a 0.50% cut is 10%.

On the other hand, as Australia's Q2 GDP statistics exceeded expectations, the forecasts for an RBA rate cut have decreased. According to swap trading, the likelihood of the RBA keeping interest rates steady in September is about 90%, while the probability of a 0.25% rate cut in November has decreased from 100% to 80%.

What will be the future trend of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar?

According to the analysis, from a fundamental perspective, investors need to pay attention to the U.S. August CPI statistics on September 11 and the Australian employment statistics on September 18. The difference in the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the RBA will be a key factor determining the trend of the Australian Dollar against the Dollar.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair continues to trade above the 100-day and 21-day moving averages, and the RSI indicator is showing ongoing rises, suggesting strong buying pressure. The AUD/USD is likely to continue rising, with short-term resistance seen at the previous high of 0.6625. If this level is broken, there may be room for further increases under a "W" bottom pattern.

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