Today's price fluctuation is a bit large, but from the market's perspective, it is very likely to be due to investors' expectations regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown. Currently, on Kalshi, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown on October 1st has risen to 83%, and the mainstream expectation is that the shutdown will last no more than 10 days, with options exceeding 10 days being relatively few.

I looked at the historical data, and in most cases, it was less than 14 days. Most investors still believe that a halt can be completed within 10 days, and the most common belief is that it will just halt for a weekend. Because if it goes beyond the weekend, Trump has already spoken out, and it's very likely that a large number of federal government employees will be laid off. I suddenly thought, could this increase the unemployment rate and force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates? It seems quite possible.

In addition, Trump's plan to send nuclear submarines to Russia is also a cause for concern in the market. Although Trump has repeatedly explained that the nuclear submarines will not be detected by Russia and will be used as sparingly as possible, if Russia is stubborn, Trump may not advise against a deterrent strike. This would be a big problem for the market; once Russia starts using nuclear weapons, the market is expected to directly initiate a "final decline."

Of course, I believe it will not be activated unless absolutely necessary. Let's wait and see, hoping that Russia will not do anything impulsive.

Looking back at the data for BTC, the turnover rate has not changed much, and the slight decline in price is likely still due to investors' concerns about the U.S. government shutdown. However, whether viewed from the U.S. stock market or the price of $BTC , the temporary impact is still relatively limited. If the U.S. enters a shutdown tomorrow, the market will fully anticipate whether it will reduce the decline or continue to drop due to the shutdown. We should see the answer by next Monday.

Although the price of BTC has fallen, the overall chip distribution is still quite healthy, and the strength of the support level is also good. However, it cannot be ruled out that the deepening contradictions caused by the suspension may lead to increased panic among investors. In simple terms, if it can resume next Monday, then it's likely to be a weekend fluctuation market, but if it remains suspended next week, it may indeed exacerbate the market's pessimistic expectations.