In recent years, the inflation data in the United States has shown a complex trend. On the surface, the overall Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) appears relatively stable, but a deeper analysis reveals that since February 2020, the core cost of living pressure on the public has significantly intensified.

Specifically, the prices of grocery items have surged by over 29%, reaching a record high. During the same period, the overall food prices increased by over 30%, dining out expenses grew by over 33%, and transportation service prices skyrocketed by over 36%. These figures clearly reflect the real economic pressures faced by the general public in their daily lives.

It is worth noting that the annual CPI shows a cyclical reversal pattern. This typically manifests as a pattern of "sharp increase in the current year, followed by a significant decline 12 months later." For example, an increase in tariffs can lead to a substantial rise in the CPI in the short term, but after 12 months, it will significantly decline. Based on this pattern, it is expected that starting in May 2026, the annual CPI may begin to show a downward trend.

However, economists warn that if the annual CPI rate declines simultaneously with a drop in non-farm payroll data, the economy may enter a deflationary phase. Typically, when the annual CPI rate declines, the non-farm payroll data tends to rise in tandem. However, if these two indicators show reverse movements, it may signal the onset of an economic recession.

Therefore, investors and policymakers need to closely monitor the year-on-year reversal characteristics of the CPI, which occurs once every 12 months. This not only relates to the quality of life of the general public but also has a significant impact on the overall economic direction and investment strategies. In the current complex economic environment, accurately grasping the changing trends of these economic indicators is crucial for formulating reasonable economic policies and investment decisions.