BTC Peak Coming: Why the Next 7 Weeks Might Fill Your Pockets

Bull run's death clock is ticking - 50 days left.

I've been tracking this cycle like a hawk, and let me tell you, we're 95% through this party (1,017 days in) while experiencing that typical Q3 bloodbath that shakes out the weak hands.

Listen up if you want to actually make money instead of becoming exit liquidity.

Looking at raw cycle data, we're 1,017 days from the November 2022 bottom. Previous bulls peaked between 1,060-1,100 days. That puts our target late October to mid-November. Roughly 50 days to go.

The halving math backs this up too. April 2024 happened 503 days ago, and history says tops come 518-580 days post-halving. We're 77-86% through that window. The danger zone is here.

And I'm not just saying this - after the top, BTC always crashes 70-80% over 370-410 days. That risk lands in Q1-Q2 2026. The probability? 100% fucking percent based on history.

But before that - we'll see a glorious blowoff top that'll make grown men weep.

September is historically garbage (-6.17% average). The whole Q3 picture is mixed - median slightly positive but average negative because a few major dumps skew the data. Typical pattern shows September sucks but October/November brings the heat. Circle September 17th.

Technical picture: BTC sitting at $109.8K during this pullback. ATH was $124.1K on August 14. Key supports: 50-week SMA at $95.9K, 200-week at $52.3K. 7-week correlation with SPX is -0.25 (decoupling), and these low correlation periods typically mark major turning points.

Daily chart shows 200d BPRO at $111K, 200d SMA at $101.5K, RSI at 43, volatility around 3K. Local support $107.7-108.7K, resistance $113-114.1K.

Trailers in bear mode with break points at $112,758/$114,292. Market neutral/bearish below those levels. Structure stays intact above $107-108K, but bears get aggressive below that.

On-chain data shows mining cost at $95.4K (healthy 0.86 ratio), capitulation risk minimal. NUPL 0.53, MVRV 2.20, over 90% supply in profit.

ETF action shows 24h volume at $630.94M with net inflows of $332.8M on Sept 3 (first decent inflow after August outflows). Total AUM is $155.8B with BlackRock leading at $81.44B, Fidelity at $35.28B, and GBTC at $19.8B. Spot ETFs dominate with 93.54% market share.

Simple takeaway: We're 96% through this bull run with about 50 days until historical peak window. Key support levels are holding, on-chain metrics resilient, and ETFs doing some modest buying (though AUM is down $13B from peak).

September's goal: survive. October-November: peak followed by altseason explosion.

Mark October 22 on your damn calendar.