The key to this week's market is Friday's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate; everything else is just a side note. Because these two data points almost directly determine whether the Fed will continue to "kneel and cut interest rates" in October. The market's ideal scenario is: the data doesn't look good, but it's not bad enough to scream collapse.
For example, even if the new non-farm payrolls show a slight rebound, they are still at historically low levels; if the unemployment rate remains around 4.3%, that would be just right. Such data gives the Fed an opportunity to ease: on one hand, they can say there is significant economic pressure and have reasons to cut interest rates; on the other hand, they do not have to worry about being interpreted by the market as a complete recession. As long as there are no particularly negative surprises on Friday, the market in October is likely to remain stable.
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The key to this week's market is Friday's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate; everything else is just a side note. Because these two data points almost directly determine whether the Fed will continue to "kneel and cut interest rates" in October. The market's ideal scenario is: the data doesn't look good, but it's not bad enough to scream collapse.
For example, even if the new non-farm payrolls show a slight rebound, they are still at historically low levels; if the unemployment rate remains around 4.3%, that would be just right. Such data gives the Fed an opportunity to ease: on one hand, they can say there is significant economic pressure and have reasons to cut interest rates; on the other hand, they do not have to worry about being interpreted by the market as a complete recession.
As long as there are no particularly negative surprises on Friday, the market in October is likely to remain stable.