Gold in 2025: Price Trends Analysis and Outlook

The Evolution of the Gold Market in 2025

The gold market is experiencing remarkable dynamics at the end of September 2025, with prices reaching historic levels. Current data shows that an ounce of gold is trading around 3,768.66 dollars, confirming a sustained upward trend since the beginning of the year.

Macroeconomic Factors Influencing the Price of Gold

Inflation and Monetary Policy

The persistent inflationary environment and the weakening of the US dollar have significantly supported the rise in gold prices. Adjustments in monetary policy by central banks, particularly the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, have played a crucial role in this evolution.

Institutional Request

Central bank purchases account for about 25% of total gold demand in 2025, creating significant upward pressure on prices. The first quarter of 2025 recorded the highest global demand for gold ETFs in three years, driven by trade tensions and price dynamics.

Technical Analysis of the Gold Market

The technical data reveals a strong upward momentum with key resistance levels located around $2.080-$2.090. The current support levels are crucial for maintaining this upward trend. The chart analysis suggests that the movement could continue, with momentum indicators remaining positive.

Outlook for the End of 2025

Current forecasts from major financial institutions place the price of gold between $3,300 and $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have notably published projections within this range, based on an analysis of market trends and economic factors.

Gold Demand and Supply in 2025

Total demand for gold in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 3% year-on-year to reach 1,249 tons. This increase is primarily supported by:

• Central bank purchases that maintain a sustained pace
• Investments in gold ETFs that have seen a resurgence of interest
• Jewelry consumption remains resilient despite price increases.

The gold market continues to demonstrate its ability to serve as a safe haven in a context of uncertainty, enhancing its appeal for both institutional investors and individuals looking to diversify their portfolios.