When will Bitcoin be able to rise to 1 million dollars each?

Bullish predictions and core basis for Bitcoin reaching the target of 1 million USD
Regarding when Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars each, different institutions and individuals have made various predictions based on market trends, regulatory environments, and technical characteristics. The following are the main viewpoints and supporting factors:

Institutions and Celebrities Price Prediction Timeline
- Winklevoss twins: Predict that Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars in the next 10 years (by 2035), with the core logic being that Bitcoin may replace gold as "digital gold 2.0". If this status is achieved, its scarcity and hedging properties will support a price surge.
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong: Clearly expects Bitcoin price to possibly reach $1 million by 2030, citing that the gradual clarity of U.S. cryptocurrency regulations, the passage of stablecoin legislation, and the advancement of market structure legislation will enhance institutional confidence, and that Bitcoin could become the "new global reserve currency."
- Bernstein analyst: Using a cyclical model to predict, Bitcoin will break through 1 million USD in 2033, with key driving factors including the influx of funds from financial institutions due to spot ETFs (expected to account for 15% of total Bitcoin supply), the supply-demand imbalance caused by Bitcoin's fixed supply (21 million coins), and the suppressive effect of the halving event that occurs every four years on the inflation rate.

The core factors supporting the $1 million target
1. Scarcity and Demand Growth
The total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins, with approximately 66% of the tokens being long-term illiquid. The exchange circulation has decreased from 15% in 2021 to 12% in 2023, indicating significant scarcity. As institutions increase their allocation through spot ETFs (currently managing about $60 billion in assets), the growth in demand may continue to push prices higher.
2. Regulatory and Compliance Process
As a "leader" in cryptocurrency regulation, the passage of the stablecoin bill and the advancement of the market structure bill in the United States may reduce the risks for institutions entering the market. Armstrong believes that increased regulatory transparency will accelerate the mainstream adoption of Bit.
3. Macroeconomics and Reserve Asset Attributes
The rise in global deficits and economic uncertainty has prompted investors to seek non-fiat currency assets, with Bitcoin being viewed by some as "Gold 2.0." The Winklevoss brothers and Armstrong have both emphasized its potential as a safe-haven asset and reserve currency, suggesting that if it were to replace gold (currently valued at around $12 trillion), the price could reach into the million-dollar range based on Bitcoin's current market value.

Risks and variables to be aware of
- Market Volatility: The price of Bitcoin is significantly influenced by short-term capital flows. For example, in June 2024, the outflow from the U.S. spot ETF exceeded $900 million in a single week, leading to a price correction. Historical data shows that the upward cycles following halving events are often accompanied by severe fluctuations.
- Technical and adoption challenges: Despite the optimistic long-term trend, there is a need to overcome technical bottlenecks such as transaction efficiency and scalability in the short term, while also being wary of the impact of regulatory policy shifts or black swan events on market confidence.

In summary, the period from 2030 to 2035 is the time window of 1 million dollars indicated by most forecasts, but its realization relies on the multiple coordination of regulations, institutional capital inflows, and the macroeconomic environment. Investors need to rationally view the balance between long-term trends and short-term fluctuations.

The above content is collected and generated by AI, for reference only.