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As the end of September approaches, the global economic situation has attracted widespread attention. The U.S. government faces the risk of running out of funds, and if Congress fails to take action before September 29, it could lead to a government shutdown on October 1. Against this backdrop, the upcoming economic indicators are highly anticipated.
The U.S. Department of Labor will release the September non-farm payroll report on October 3, and this data is crucial for assessing the future direction of monetary policy. However, if a government shutdown becomes a reality, the release of this report and other economic data may be delayed.
The importance of this employment report lies in verifying whether the downward risk to the labor market, which Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is concerned about, continues to exist. Last month, the number of new jobs in the United States was far below expectations, with only 22,000 added. Powell has clearly stated that the labor market is losing stability, and the number of new jobs is insufficient to maintain a stable unemployment rate.
If the data for September shows weakness again, especially if new job creation continues to be sluggish or the unemployment rate rises further, it will strongly support the Federal Reserve's forecast and may raise market expectations for further interest rate cuts within the year. Conversely, if the data shows a significant rebound, it may trigger a reassessment of the monetary policy path in the market.
In addition, several important economic indicators will be released this week, including the US ADP employment data, the September PMI for both China and the US, the Eurozone CPI, and the Japan PMI. These data will provide a more comprehensive insight into the health of the global economy.
In Asia, the mainland Chinese stock market will be closed for 8 days due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday. In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party plans to hold a presidential election on October 4, and the results may have a significant impact on the political landscape of Japan.
It is worth mentioning that South Korea announced a temporary visa exemption policy for Chinese team tourists starting from September 29, which may have a positive impact on regional tourism. In the technology sector, Yushutech is expected to submit an IPO application between October and December, attracting market attention.
Overall, the global economy will face multiple challenges and opportunities in the coming week, and various economic data and policy trends are worth close attention.