The Benner Cycle: A Framework That Still Predicts Markets Today

Samuel Benner wasn't your typical market guru. Just a farmer and businessman from 19th century America. No fancy economics degree. Yet his insights about market patterns? Kind of amazing.

Samuel Benner: The Accidental Market Prophet

Benner raised pigs. Simple life. Then disaster struck. He lost almost everything in economic downturns. Brutal.

This personal financial rollercoaster got him thinking. Why do markets crash then recover? It seemed like there might be patterns. He studied past cycles obsessively. Money lost, then rebuilt. Lost again. The cycle felt oddly predictable to him.

How the Benner Cycle Came About

In 1875, Benner published his ideas. The book had an ambitious title: "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices." Bold move. He mapped out recurring patterns of market behavior over decades.

His system breaks down like this:

"A" Years – Panic Years: These hit roughly every 18-20 years. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019... and looking ahead to 2035. Market chaos ensues.

"B" Years – Selling Opportunities: Years when markets peak. 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, 2007... with 2026 potentially next. Everything looks expensive. People feel rich.

"C" Years – Buying Times: Market bottoms like 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, 2012. Doom everywhere. Perfect time to buy—if you've got the courage.

He started by tracking pig prices and iron. Not exactly Wall Street material. Yet traders eventually applied his ideas to stocks, bonds, and now even crypto.

Does This Old Theory Still Work?

It's not entirely clear why such a simple approach would work in our complex world. But markets still swing between fear and greed, just as they did in Benner's day.

The 2019 wobble? Right on Benner's schedule. Weird coincidence? Maybe.

Now everyone's watching 2026. If markets boom then crash afterward, Benner's reputation will grow even stronger. Some traders are already positioning for this possibility.

These patterns give long-term investors something to think about. When to hold. When to fold.

Why Today's Traders Might Want to Pay Attention

Emotions drive markets. Always have. Benner figured this out while raising pigs.

Bull markets? Use those "B" years to cash out. Take profits while everyone else is still partying.

Bear markets? Those "C" years are your friend. Buy when others panic.

Final Thoughts

Benner was just a farmer who noticed patterns. Nothing fancy. But his cycle theory lives on because markets still behave in strangely predictable ways.

For today's traders—whether you're into stocks, crypto, or whatever's next—there's wisdom in these old patterns. Human nature doesn't change much.

As 2025 approaches, more eyes turn to Benner's predictions. Will they hit the mark again? We'll see. The financial world watches with interest. And maybe a bit of skepticism.