#美联储货币政策# Looking back at history, I can't help but marvel at the evolution of the Fed's monetary policy. From the preemptive rate cuts of the 1990s to the bail-out rate cuts of 2008, each policy shift has profoundly impacted the market landscape. Today, in the face of a complex economic environment, a 25 basis point rate cut seems to be a prudent "Risk Management". The dot plot indicates that interest rate expectations will continue to decline over the next two years, signaling a moderate easing. However, the long-term interest rate anchor remains steady at 3.0%, showing that the Fed remains vigilant against inflation.

The recent interest rate cut is backed by multiple overlapping factors: a cooling job market, easing inflation, and pressure from the political level. Historically, preventive interest rate cuts have often injected new momentum into the market. The fact that both cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks have hit new highs might be a continuation of this logic.

However, we must also be vigilant about the risk of "good news being fully priced in". The size of the money market fund has reached a historical high of $7.2 trillion, and how this massive amount of capital flows is worth paying attention to. Hedge funds have begun to position themselves, anticipating increased volatility in the future. As a witness, I believe the market will be full of opportunities and challenges in the coming year; the key is to understand the direction of policies and grasp the overall trends.