Alternative Indicators in an Economic Winter: Analyzing Real Market Trends from Consumption Data

Consumer behavior tends to reflect economic trends earlier and more directly than official GDP figures. By analysing atypical economic indicators such as the housing market, condom sales, drug consumption and nightlife venues, we can gain insight into the deep pulse of the market, identify changes in economic cycles in advance, and provide reference for investment decisions.

Real estate market: back to where it was a few years ago

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the new home prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities are expected to decline by about 10%-15% in the first half of 2025, returning to the levels of May 2019. Official data shows that the year-on-year decline in April 2025 narrowed to -4.5%, which is interpreted by officials as a phase of stabilization.

The second-hand housing market is showing even weaker performance, with the year-on-year decline in the average price of second-hand houses in 100 cities expanding to 15% in the first half of 2025. All monitored cities are basically showing a month-on-month downward trend, with prices falling back to the level of February 2017.

Domestic real estate companies' total liabilities have reached 60 trillion yuan. In the context of declining wage levels, this enormous debt continues to exert pressure on the market, further suppressing consumption ability and market confidence.

Condom Sales: Market Shrinking and Supply Chain Exit

Condom sales, as an alternative indicator of consumer confidence, show a significant downward trend. Data indicates that the market size has decreased from a sales revenue of 20.8 billion yuan in 2020 to 15.6 billion yuan by the end of 2024, representing a drop of over 25% over four years, with an average annual decline of over 6%. The total sales for 2024 have also sharply decreased by 17%.

The changes on the supply chain side are also significant: from 2020 to the end of 2024, more than 78,000 condom manufacturing companies were deregistered, with an average annual deregistration of 17,300 companies. The world's largest condom manufacturer, Karex, was forced to switch to producing gloves to save itself.

This phenomenon of consumption downgrade reflects the impact of the economic fundamentals on consumer behavior. Under economic pressure, even products related to basic physiological needs have shown a significant decline in demand.

Pharmaceutical Consumption: Male Consumption Indicator

The data shows that in 2024, the sales of ED drugs (erectile dysfunction drugs) will decline simultaneously, with the sales of its Chinese Viagra representative product Jinge (Baiyunshan) falling by 13.2%, and the sales of imported original drug Viagra (Pfizer) falling by 7.7%.

The sales fluctuations of these types of drugs are a sensitive indicator of consumer capacity, reflecting a broader contraction in household balance sheets. When consumers begin to cut spending on these types of drugs, it is in fact part of an overall downgrade in consumption and a signal of increasing financial pressure on households.

Professional market analysts point out that seemingly marginal consumer data often reflects economic downturn pressures earlier, and can even be more forward-looking than official macro indicators. For risk asset investors, this is an early warning signal in the market that requires close attention.

Physical entertainment venues: The KTV industry has shrunk significantly

According to the "China Leisure Development Report (2023-2024)", the number of KTV outlets has decreased from a peak of over 150,000 in 2015 to less than 40,000 in the first half of 2025. The consumer participation rate in KTVs for 2023-2024 has dropped by 87% year-on-year, a decline that far exceeds that of other entertainment venues.

This change reflects both the decline in consumption capability and the shift in consumption patterns. The post-80s and post-90s, who used to be the main consumer group, now face financial pressures such as mortgage and car loans, leading to noticeably more conservative consumption behavior; meanwhile, the entertainment choices of the post-00s are more diverse, and traditional KTV is no longer the first choice.

Nightlife Economy: Model Transformation and Consumption Downgrading

The data shows that the nightclub industry will decline by 76.9% and the bar industry by 65% in 2024. Behind this collapse decline, there are both social model changes with high consumption, closed scenes replaced by fragmented and immersive experiences, and economic factors that significantly degrade middle-class consumption.

Market analysis shows that the ostensibly prosperous nightlife economy has actually fallen victim to the game of capital, with a large number of individual investors facing losses. Consumer behavior has also changed from "red into a glass of wine" to "a pot of tea for thousands of years", reflecting a more rational and cautious consumption mentality.

Low Desire Society and Investment Thinking

These unconventional economic indicators together outline an economy that is moving towards a "low-desire society": consumption is degrading, desires are shrinking, and social interactions are simplifying. When men no longer consume to "please themselves," when women reduce spending "to please others," and when young people turn to a lifestyle of going to bed early and waking up early, managing finances, and finding comfort in solitude, the chill in the economy is no longer just an individual issue, but a collective choice of the era.

For digital asset investors, this trend of consumption downgrade provides an important market signal: in an environment of ongoing economic pressure, risk asset allocation needs to be more cautious, and liquidity management has become particularly important. Data from professional trading platforms shows that during such economic downturns, the demand for hedging in the market rises, and asset allocation diversification and risk management capabilities become the key.

The truth of the economy is not always found in GDP reports, but rather hidden in these seemingly insignificant consumption data. Through these alternative economic indicators, we see not only a downgrade in consumption but also a turning signal in the economic cycle—it's not that consumers are unwilling to spend, but their spending power and confidence are declining; it's not that people don't love socializing, but high-cost social activities are hard to maintain.

This is the real consumer winter that the market should pay attention to, and it is the economic reality that investors need to respond to rationally.