Discuss the driving forces of the market this year and the differences from last year's logic.

The surge in 2024 is essentially driven by the Bitcoin spot ETF. Institutions allocated a portion of their positions through compliant channels and then locked them up, with almost no active trading. The benefit is that it has opened up traditional funding channels, but the downside is also obvious: this type of funding is "passive allocation," just entering without moving, and will not create sustained market momentum. By this year, the momentum driven by the ETF has basically been exhausted.
However, in 2025, the regulatory attitude in the United States suddenly relaxed, directly reversing the market sentiment.
On one hand, the SEC has abandoned the extreme framework of "Everyone in DeFi is a broker." The original idea that front-end developers, liquidity providers, and even developers could be forcibly labeled as broker-dealers has now been completely revoked, meaning that domestic protocols and teams in the U.S. no longer have to worry about being swept up all at once.
On the other hand, the IRS has chosen to implement the tax reporting rules for digital assets in phases. In 2025, only the reporting of transaction amounts is required, while the more complex cost basis will be deferred until 2026, effectively providing traders, market makers, and institutions with a significant buffer period.
The combined effect of these two changes is to directly eliminate the "compliance bomb" that on-chain participants fear the most. Because of this, the on-chain derivatives market has exploded in the past few months. For example, Hyperliquid saw a transaction volume of 330 billion dollars in just the month of July, a figure that was unimaginable in previous years.
ETF funds are a one-time irrigation; once they run out, they're gone. On the other hand, trading on-chain derivatives is a continuous flow of fresh water that, combined with leverage, can continuously amplify volatility and trends.
Therefore, compared to last year's "ETF market", this year's momentum appears more genuine and sustainable. Looking at the market, the inflow and outflow of ETFs are no longer the focus; those who pay attention to it are already falling behind. The real trend has long shifted on-chain: the depth of perpetual contracts, open interest (OI), and spreads are the core indicators that determine the temperature of the market. #打榜优质内容