What will the financial market trends be like in the third and fourth quarters of 2025?

Outlook for the Financial Market in the Third and Fourth Quarters of 2025
1. A-share market: Structural market conditions are the mainstream, with brokerage performance and funding conditions providing support.
- The performance of the brokerage sector is relatively certain: In the first half of 2025, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 42 listed brokerages increased by 65.08% year-on-year, and all achieved profitability, making it the only sector in A-shares that recorded a profit across the entire industry. In the third quarter, the margin trading balance reached a historical high of 23159.16 billion yuan, and interest income, proprietary investments, and investment banking business revenues are expected to further grow, with clear expectations for performance growth.
- Market sentiment and funding conditions are leaning towards optimism: nearly 80% of investment advisors are bullish on the third quarter A-shares, with over 60% believing that the market will show structural trends, and styles becoming more balanced. Improved macroeconomic expectations (71% of advisors hold a neutral or optimistic attitude), expectations for a loose liquidity environment (nearly 60% of advisors judge liquidity to be leaning towards ease), and increased expectations for incremental funds entering the market form support for the upward movement of the stock market.

II. Gold Market: Institutions are collectively optimistic about the medium-term upward trend, with geopolitical and macroeconomic factors being key drivers.
- Price targets repeatedly hit new highs: Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year, JPMorgan predicts an average price of $3,675 per ounce in the fourth quarter, Citibank has rarely raised its target for the next three months to $3,500 per ounce, and UBS even suggests that in a scenario of geopolitical tension, it could rise to $3,800 per ounce.
- The core driving logic is clear: weak economic growth in the United States, a weakening dollar, inflationary pressures from tariffs, and continued gold purchases by global central banks provide long-term support. Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year further strengthen the momentum for rising gold prices. Investment demand has increased by 78% year-on-year, and the inflow of funds into gold ETFs has reached the fastest half-year growth rate since 2010, with market enthusiasm continuing to heat up.

III. Commodities: Significant sector differentiation, with structural opportunities in precious metals and some industrial products.
- Precious metals maintain high-level fluctuations: Under expectations of loose liquidity, supply constraints, and low inventory effects, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to continue in a high-level fluctuation pattern, complementing asset allocation with the equity market.
- Differentiation in industrial varieties: Citic Securities pointed out that industrial metals and crude oil may experience a phase of weakened demand-side pressure, while the supply-demand pattern for coal and steel is expected to recover. The momentum for the steel market may strengthen under the theme of anti-involution; previously oversold new energy materials such as lithium and silicon may see a rebound.

IV. Market Risk Warning
- A-shares need to be alert to style switching: Although structural market conditions are the mainstream consensus, the speed of sector rotation is accelerating, and key sectors such as technology, new consumption, real estate, and finance need to pay attention to changes in policies and capital flow.
- The risk of gold price volatility still exists: the widening short-term spot-futures price difference may trigger a technical adjustment, but institutions generally believe that the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged, with geopolitical situations and the pace of Federal Reserve policies being the main sources of uncertainty.

The above content is collected and generated by AI for reference only.