Wu said this week's macro indicators and analysis: "The Fed's favorite inflation indicator" August PCE price index.

Compiled by: GaryMa Wu said Blockchain

Abstract Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected, while the central banks of the UK and Japan kept interest rates unchanged; this week, focus on the "Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator" the August PCE price index and numerous speeches from Federal Reserve officials.

Last Week in Review

The Federal Reserve announced a reduction of the federal funds rate ceiling by 25 basis points to 4.25%, in line with market expectations, with the previous value being 4.50%. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, with a dovish tone in the statement. Most officials expect at least 3 more rate cuts by the end of the year, with only Miran advocating for a 50 basis point cut this time. Seven participants expect no further rate cuts this year, while two only anticipate one more cut, but there was less disagreement at this meeting.

UK central bank interest rate decision as of September 18 is 4%, expected 4.00%, previous value 4.00%. The interest rate remains unchanged, in line with market expectations.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, expected to be 240,000, and the previous value was revised from 263,000 to 264,000.

The Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time it has "held steady."

The United States and China held economic and trade talks in Madrid, Spain, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok problem and reducing investment barriers, emphasizing the importance of economic and trade relations.

Trump's state visit to the UK included a meeting with Charles III and the signing of the "Technology Prosperity Agreement" with Starmer, but differences in trade and economy still remain.

Key Events & Indicators This Week September 22

FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook (21:45)

In 2025, FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy (22:00)

September 23

PMI of manufacturing industries in multiple countries such as the UK, US, France, and Germany

September 25

The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 is ( million ) (20:30)

US Q2 Real GDP Annualized QoQ Final (20:30)

Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarterly Rate Final Value for Q2 in the United States (20:30)

September 26

U.S. Core PCE Price Index YoY for August (20:30)

U.S. September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final (22:00)

U.S. September one-year inflation rate expectation final value (22:00)

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman gives a speech (22:00)