This week the Fed announced an interest rate cut, but the market reacted calmly. This tranquility actually reflects the investment strategy of "buying the expectation, selling the fact." As early as the Jackson Hole meeting last August, Fed Chairman Powell had signaled a dovish stance, and the market had already priced in this favourable information.

However, what is truly worth paying attention to is the interest rate trend in 2025. There is a huge divergence among Fed officials regarding the future number of rate cuts, as evidenced by the latest dot plot. One official advocates for keeping the current rate unchanged, six support another rate cut, and nine insist that there should be three rate cuts. Even more striking is that one official boldly predicts a need for a 150 basis point cut.

This diversity of internal opinions not only reflects the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook but also hints at the complexity of the monetary policy-making process. Investors and economists will closely monitor economic data and Fed officials' remarks in the coming months for clues about the direction of monetary policy in 2025.