$DOT/USDT

Current price: 4.485
Target Price:

- TP1: 4.30 (short-term support)
- TP2: 4.20 (Fibonacci extension level)
- TP3: 4.10 (historical support)
Stop-loss price: higher than 4.55

Reasons for short selling:

1. Resistance Effectiveness:
- The price has formed a "double top" structure at the key resistance level of 4.50 (left shoulder 4.50 → head 4.55 → right shoulder 4.50), MA(7) and MA(25) are diverging with a death cross.
- 4.50 corresponds to the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (from the rise segment of 4.00 to 4.55)
2. Trend Structure:
- The daily chart has formed a "descending triangle" breakout pattern, with the neck line at 4.50
- The short-term trend is downward, and the price has broken below MA(25) 4.48
3. Downside Potential:
- After breaking below 4.50, it opens up a downward space of 4.10+ (Fibonacci 50% retracement level)
4. Volume-Price Matching:
- The trading volume surged 1.8 times during the decline phase (reaching an average daily level of 5 times), while the trading volume shrank to 0.6 times during the rise phase.
5. Indicator Verification:
- RSI(14)=75 (overbought area turning down), MACD red bars shortening, double line death cross
- KDJ forms a "death cross" signal, and the J value continues to decline.
6. Fund Flow:
- The net short position in contracts increased by 92%, with a funding rate of -0.042% (bearish sentiment dominant)
7. Risk and Return:
- Stop loss 4.55 corresponds to target 4.10, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.5:1

Key Technical Features:

- The middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart has turned down, and the price has fallen below the middle line (4.48).
- Fibonacci retracement levels: 4.30 is the 38.2% retracement level, 4.20 is the 50% retracement level.
- The 15-minute chart forms a "double top" breakout pattern, measuring a drop of 0.15.

Risk Management:

- It is recommended that the risk per trade be ≤1.0% of the position (high volatility assets)
- After breaking below 4.30, move the stop loss to 4.40
- Closely monitor the effectiveness of the 4.40 short-term resistance

Trading Strategy:

- Adding position on breakout: After effectively breaking below 4.30, an additional 1/3 position can be added.
- Tiered Take Profit: Take profit 50% at 4.30, take profit 30% at 4.20, take profit remaining 20% at 4.10
- Sector linkage: Pay attention to the overall trend of mainstream coins. If $BTC falls in sync, it can enhance confidence.

This content is for reference only and should not be considered as investment advice.