#Gate广场创作点亮中秋 #美联储降息预期升温

Historical heavy signal! The truth about the past 10 rounds of interest rate cuts has been exposed! This time will determine the fate of all retail investors!
The United States is about to enter a new round of interest rate cuts. Looking back from 1984 to 2020, the Federal Reserve has conducted ten rounds of rate cuts, each with different backgrounds and impacts, which can be roughly divided into three categories, each indicating different economic prospects and market trends.
The first type is "preventive interest rate cuts": the economy has not fallen into crisis, and inflation is trending towards moderation. The policy intention is to guide high interest rates to gradually decline, which is a proactive adjustment.
The second category is "emergency interest rate cuts," responding to sudden risk events such as the 1987 stock market crash and the 2020 pandemic, to quickly stabilize market sentiment.
The third type is "recessionary rate cuts," which often occur when the economy has clearly declined, such as in 2001 and 2007, and the effects of the policy are often lagging behind the reality of the recession.
After the interest rate cuts in these three categories, the performance of the US stock market shows significant differences. After a preventive rate cut, the S&P 500 averages an increase of 13.2% within 12 months; during a responsive rate cut, there is considerable volatility initially, but after one year, it averages a 17.4% increase. In contrast, following a recession-type rate cut, the S&P 500 averages a drop of over 14% within 3 months, and after 12 months, it still averages a decline of 11.6%, reflecting the difficulty of quickly reversing the downturn.
The current market focus is on what type of rate cut this round belongs to. The following key signals can assist in making this judgment:
Rate cut magnitude: A single cut exceeding 50 basis points is extremely rare; if it occurs, it often indicates that the economy is losing momentum.
Sam's Rule: If the average unemployment rate over the past 3 months rises by 0.5 percentage points compared to the low point of the previous 12 months, it is often seen as a signal of recession.
Other indicators: such as the continuous increase in the number of unemployment claims, widespread downward revision of corporate profit expectations, and weakening consumer and investment confidence.
Currently, the unemployment rate in the United States remains low, the Sam rule has not been triggered, and manufacturing and inflation data do not show signs of recession. This round of interest rate cuts is more akin to a "preventive" measure, aimed at safeguarding an economic soft landing rather than responding to a crisis.
If the future job market significantly deteriorates or corporate profits continue to decline, the nature of interest rate cuts may shift to a passive response. Stabilizing employment and profits is the true foundation for a soft landing.